Finished

Medium risk

AIK W vs Vittsjö W

1–2Full time

Sat, Aug 15, 11:00 AMSkytteholms IP

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 70/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.

Model verdict

Medium risk

Home Win

AIK W (LWLWL) project at 1.5 expected goals versus 1.1 for Vittsjö W (WDWDW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 70/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

70/100

Confidence

70/100

Strongest cover

73.3% probability

Risk classification

Medium

26.8% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

AW win46.5%

Draw26.8%

VW win26.7%

Goals

Over 1.574%

Over 2.548.1%

Under 2.551.9%

Both teams to score

Yes52.8%

No47.2%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

AIK W

6/15 recent form points

LWLWL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.50
Shots on target: Unavailable

Vittsjö W

11/15 recent form points

WDWDW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.07
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: No odds available
Optional coverage: No H2H · no odds
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Recent head-to-head data is unavailable on the current API tier.

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

AIK W at home have a slightly stronger overall record than Vittsjö W away, with 7 wins from 14 at home versus 6 wins from 14 away. Their goal difference is also marginally better, scoring 21 and conceding 20 at home, while Vittsjö W score 15 and concede 15 away. In recent form, AIK W show more inconsistency, with the sequence LWLWL, while Vittsjö W are steadier with WDWDW. That said, AIK W’s home clean sheets (4) match Vittsjö W’s away clean sheets (4), so a tight match is plausible rather than a runaway result. The goal outlook leans slightly toward goals, with over 2.5 goals at 48.1% and both teams to score at 52.8%. With both sides having similar clean-sheet counts and comparable defensive concession totals, the most likely pattern is a close game where AIK W can edge it at home, aligning with the home win lean (46.5%) but not with high certainty. Overall, the home win call fits the small home advantage and marginal goal profile, but the draw probability (26.8%) and the away win probability (26.7%) keep the risk at a medium level.

Recorded forecast

Final score

1-2

Pre-kickoff call

Home Win · 52.9% → Lost

Ranked probability score

0.4449 (uniform ≈ 0.222)

Recorded Sat, 15 Aug 2026 10:33 UTC, before kickoff, unpriced, by livewin-hybrid-v0.6. Counted in the public track record.

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Team hubs: AIK W predictions · Vittsjö W predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.