Eredivisie
Finished
High risk

ADO Den Haag vs Groningen

14Full time
Sun, Aug 16, 10:15 AMBingoal Stadium

AI prediction

Away Win

Confidence 38/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.
Model verdict
High risk

Away Win

ADO Den Haag (LLL) project at 1.3 expected goals versus 1.5 for Groningen (LLWWL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Away Win at 38/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2026 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

38/100

Confidence
38/100

Strongest cover

12

75.3% probability

Risk classification

High

24.7% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

ADH win28.1%
Draw24.7%
G win47.2%

Goals

Over 1.578%
Over 2.553.6%
Under 2.546.4%

Both teams to score

Yes57.6%
No42.4%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

ADO Den Haag

0/9 recent form points

LLL
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
0.67
Shots on target
Unavailable

Groningen

6/15 recent form points

LLWWL
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.40
Shots on target
Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 2/9 and Over 2.5 in 2/9.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version
livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source
Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline
2026 season
Odds timestamp
No odds available
Optional coverage
H2H available · no odds
Confidence
Signal agreement score
Risk
High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

ADO Den Haag 1-4 Groningen

2026-08-16T12:15:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

ADO Den Haag 0-2 Groningen

2024-03-29T20:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Groningen 0-1 ADO Den Haag

2023-09-15T20:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Groningen 3-0 ADO Den Haag

2021-01-26T21:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

ADO Den Haag 0-1 Groningen

2020-09-20T12:15:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

ADO Den Haag 1-1 Groningen

2019-12-14T18:30:00+01:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Groningen 1-0 ADO Den Haag

2019-03-17T14:30:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

ADO Den Haag 1-0 Groningen

2018-10-06T18:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Groningen 0-0 ADO Den Haag

2018-02-11T16:45:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Groningen look more likely to take the points, with the away win probability at 47.2% versus 28.1% for ADO Den Haag. The home side has started with three straight losses, scoring only 2 goals and conceding 9 across those matches, while Groningen’s overall record is more balanced with 14 wins and 15 losses from 35 games. The goal profile also leans slightly toward Groningen’s side. Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 53.6%, and both teams to score is at 57.6%, suggesting a match where goals are more likely than a low-scoring stalemate. ADO Den Haag’s lack of clean sheets so far (0 in 3) aligns with the idea that Groningen may be able to find scoring chances. The confidence is relatively low (38) and the risk is high, mainly because ADO Den Haag’s sample size is very small (only 3 matches) and Groningen’s away performance is not directly provided here. Still, given the current home struggles and Groningen’s stronger season-level output, an away win is the most supported outcome among the options.

Recorded forecast

Final score

1-4

Pre-kickoff call

Away Win · 41.4% → Won

Ranked probability score

0.2248 (uniform ≈ 0.222)

Recorded Sun, 16 Aug 2026 08:28 UTC, before kickoff, unpriced, by livewin-hybrid-v0.6. Counted in the public track record.

Team hubs: ADO Den Haag predictions · Groningen predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.