Jupiler Pro League
Finished
High risk

Zulte Waregem vs SK Beveren

40Full time
Sat, Aug 22, 02:00 PMElindus Arena

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 45/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.
Model verdict
High risk

Home Win

Zulte Waregem (WWWWW) project at 1.8 expected goals versus 1 for SK Beveren (LWL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 45/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

45/100

Confidence
45/100

Strongest cover

1X

82.9% probability

Risk classification

High

21.6% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

ZW win61.3%
Draw21.6%
SB win17.1%

Goals

Over 1.579%
Over 2.555.1%
Under 2.544.9%

Both teams to score

Yes55.2%
No44.8%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Zulte Waregem

15/15 recent form points

WWWWW
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.47
Shots on target
Unavailable

SK Beveren

3/9 recent form points

LWL
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
0.67
Shots on target
Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 6/10 and Over 2.5 in 8/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version
livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source
Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline
2025 season
Odds timestamp
No odds available
Optional coverage
H2H available · no odds
Confidence
Signal agreement score
Risk
High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

SK Beveren 3-2 Zulte Waregem

2025-02-28T20:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Zulte Waregem 4-0 SK Beveren

2024-12-07T20:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Zulte Waregem 0-1 SK Beveren

2024-02-03T20:30:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

SK Beveren 0-3 Zulte Waregem

2023-10-08T13:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

SK Beveren 1-5 Zulte Waregem

2021-01-16T18:30:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Zulte Waregem 4-1 SK Beveren

2020-08-22T16:15:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Zulte Waregem 5-0 SK Beveren

2020-02-02T20:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

SK Beveren 1-2 Zulte Waregem

2019-11-02T20:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

SK Beveren 1-1 Zulte Waregem

2019-03-10T18:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Zulte Waregem 2-2 SK Beveren

2018-07-28T20:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Zulte Waregem at home have a balanced but slightly positive profile, with 13 wins, 9 draws, and 14 losses across 36 matches, and goals scored and conceded both at 53. Their clean sheets are 8, and their very strong recent run of five straight wins (WWWWW) supports the idea that they can control the match more than their season record alone might suggest. SK Beveren’s away sample is very small at 3 matches, with 1 win and 2 losses, and they’ve conceded 6 while scoring only 2. Their recent form is mixed to weak (LWL), which doesn’t point to consistent scoring or defensive stability on the road. The market-style outputs align with a home edge: home win is estimated at 61.3% versus 17.1% for Beveren, with a draw still fairly plausible at 21.6%. Over 2.5 goals is also slightly favored at 55.1%, and both teams to score is close to even at 55.2%, suggesting the match could be open enough for Beveren to contribute even if they don’t win. Overall, the home win lean is reasonable but not secure, reflected by the high risk level and a moderate confidence score of 45. The main uncertainty is that Beveren’s away data is limited, and the close “both teams to score” and “over 2.5” probabilities indicate the game may not be straightforward.

Recorded forecast

Final score

4-0

Pre-kickoff call

Home Win · 54.7%

Recorded before kickoff; settlement runs after results are confirmed.

Team hubs: Zulte Waregem predictions · SK Beveren predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.