Finished

Medium risk

Value +18.2%

Yaracuyanos FC vs Real Frontera

2–0Full time

Sat, Aug 8, 08:00 PM

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.

Model verdict

Medium risk

Home Win

Yaracuyanos FC (WDLDD) project at 1.9 expected goals versus 0.9 for Real Frontera (LLLLL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 76/100 confidence with medium risk. The strongest fair-price edge is Draw or Away at 18.2 percentage points.

Confidence

76/100

Confidence

76/100

Head-to-Head

Real Frontera 1-1 Yaracuyanos FC

2026-05-09T21:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Yaracuyanos FC 2-1 Real Frontera

2026-03-14T20:30:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Yaracuyanos FC 6-2 Real Frontera

2024-10-09T21:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Real Frontera 1-5 Yaracuyanos FC

2024-08-27T21:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Yaracuyanos FC 1-2 Real Frontera

2024-06-02T01:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Real Frontera 1-0 Yaracuyanos FC

2024-04-13T21:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Model reasoning

Yaracuyanos FC at home have a stronger overall record than Real Frontera on the road, with 7 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses from 18 matches, plus a positive goal difference from 23 scored and 20 conceded. Their recent form includes two wins in the last five results (WDLDD), which supports a home edge even if it’s not dominant. Real Frontera’s away profile is much weaker, with only 3 wins and 15 losses across 20 matches, and they’ve conceded 42 goals while scoring 19. Their recent form is five straight losses (LLLLL), which aligns with the lower away-win probability. The goal outlook is mixed but slightly favors a match with more than 2.5 total goals, with the provided over 2.5 probability at 55.7%. Both teams to score is close to even at 50.3%, suggesting Yaracuyanos may create chances, but Real Frontera could still find scoring opportunities despite their struggles. Overall, the home win lean is supported by the home team’s better record and defensive concession rate, while the medium risk reflects Real Frontera’s low win rate but meaningful draw probability (23.2%) and the relatively balanced chance of both teams scoring.

Recorded forecast

Final score

2-0

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Yaracuyanos FC

6/15 recent form points

WDLDD

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.28
Shots on target: Unavailable

Real Frontera

0/15 recent form points

LLLLL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 0.95
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 6/9 and Over 2.5 in 7/9.

Price interpretation

Value read

Double Chance · Bet365

Draw or Away

Model edge

+18.2 pp

Model: 35.8%
Market fair: 17.6%
Price: 2.88

The model assigns this outcome a higher chance than the margin-adjusted market view. Its model-fair price is 2.79 versus 2.88 offered. That is a disagreement with the market, not a promise of profit.

Provenance

Model card

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Away 1X2	1xBetBest price +16.3%	7.65	13.1%	12.6%	-0.5%
	Marathonbet	7.30	13.7%	12.6%	-1.1%
	Pinnacle	7.16	14.0%	12.6%	-1.4%
	10Bet	6.60	15.2%	12.6%	-2.6%
	Bet365	5.75	17.4%	12.6%	-4.8%
	BetVictor	5.00	20.0%	12.6%	-7.4%
Draw 1X2	Bet365Best price +12.1%	4.10	24.4%	23.2%	-1.2%
	10Bet	3.95	25.3%	23.2%	-2.1%
	Marathonbet	3.62	27.6%	23.2%	-4.4%
	1xBet	3.62	27.6%	23.2%	-4.4%
	BetVictor	3.50	28.6%	23.2%	-5.4%
	Pinnacle	3.15	31.7%	23.2%	-8.5%
Home 1X2	PinnacleBest price +4.4%	1.50	66.7%	64.2%	-2.5%
	Bet365	1.45	69.0%	64.2%	-4.8%
	1xBet	1.44	69.4%	64.2%	-5.2%
	Marathonbet	1.43	69.9%	64.2%	-5.7%
	10Bet	1.40	71.4%	64.2%	-7.2%
	BetVictor	1.40	71.4%	64.2%	-7.2%
Under 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +14.1%	2.35	42.6%	44.3%	+1.7%
	10Bet	2.25	44.4%	44.3%	-0.1%
	Marathonbet	2.00	50.0%	44.3%	-5.7%
	1xBet	2.00	50.0%	44.3%	-5.7%
	Pinnacle	1.96	51.0%	44.3%	-6.7%
	BetVictor	1.80	55.6%	44.3%	-11.3%
Over 2.5 Totals	PinnacleBest price +6.2%	1.73	57.8%	55.7%	-2.1%
	Marathonbet	1.71	58.5%	55.7%	-2.8%
	1xBet	1.71	58.5%	55.7%	-2.8%
	Bet365	1.57	63.7%	55.7%	-8.0%
	BetVictor	1.55	64.5%	55.7%	-8.8%
	10Bet	1.50	66.7%	55.7%	-11.0%
No BTTS	1xBetBest price +3.2%	1.84	54.3%	49.7%	-4.6%
	Marathonbet	1.81	55.2%	49.7%	-5.5%
	BetVictor	1.70	58.8%	49.7%	-9.1%
Yes BTTS	MarathonbetBest price +3.4%	1.83	54.6%	50.3%	-4.3%
	1xBet	1.83	54.6%	50.3%	-4.3%
	BetVictor	1.65	60.6%	50.3%	-10.3%
Draw or Away Double Chance	Bet365Best price +11.9%	2.88	34.7%	0.0%	-34.7%
	10Bet	2.75	36.4%	0.0%	-36.4%
	Marathonbet	2.43	41.2%	0.0%	-41.2%
	1xBet	2.43	41.2%	0.0%	-41.2%
	BetVictor	2.38	42.0%	0.0%	-42.0%
Home or Away Double Chance	MarathonbetBest price +4.9%	1.20	83.3%	0.0%	-83.3%
	1xBet	1.20	83.3%	0.0%	-83.3%
	10Bet	1.14	87.7%	0.0%	-87.7%
	Bet365	1.12	89.3%	0.0%	-89.3%
	BetVictor	1.06	94.3%	0.0%	-94.3%
Home or Draw Double Chance	BetVictorBest price +5.5%	1.11	90.1%	0.0%	-90.1%
	Bet365	1.06	94.3%	0.0%	-94.3%
	10Bet	1.03	97.1%	0.0%	-97.1%
	Marathonbet	1.03	97.1%	0.0%	-97.1%
	1xBet	1.03	97.1%	0.0%	-97.1%

Yaracuyanos FC vs Real Frontera

Home Win

Head-to-Head

Model reasoning

Recorded forecast

Market probabilities

Evidence ledger

Matchup xG signal

Value read

Model card

Odds Comparison