Xelajú vs Aurora

Xelajú at home has a stronger overall record than Aurora away, with 22 wins versus Aurora’s 16, and Xelajú also has the better goal profile this season (76 scored, 56 conceded compared with Aurora’s 49 scored, 65 conceded). Xelajú’s clean sheets are also higher (17 versus 13), which supports the idea that they can limit Aurora’s scoring chances. In recent form, Xelajú’s sequence WDWLL includes two wins and a draw in the last five results, while Aurora’s LLLLD shows a prolonged slump with only one draw and no wins. That contrast in momentum leans toward Xelajú being more likely to take points at home, even if the match is not a clear mismatch. The goal indicators are close to a coin flip: over 2.5 goals is at 48.6% and both teams to score is 49.3%. With Xelajú’s defensive edge but Aurora’s relatively higher goals conceded, the most plausible pattern is a competitive game where Xelajú may edge the result rather than dominate. Overall, the home win probability is 61.1% with a confidence score of 53, so the Home Win lean is reasonable but not strongly supported. The high risk level fits the near-even scoring likelihood, meaning a draw or a low-scoring upset remains plausible.