Wycombe vs Stevenage

Wycombe at home have been relatively solid in their 2025 League Cup run, with 3 wins from 4 matches and a strong goal profile of 6 scored and 3 conceded. They’ve also kept 2 clean sheets, and their recent sequence (WWWL) suggests they can control games more often than not, even if there’s been one slip. Stevenage’s away sample here is very small, with just 1 match and a record of 0W 0D 1L. They’ve scored 1 and conceded 3, and they haven’t recorded a clean sheet yet, which makes it harder to expect consistent defensive resistance on the road. The probabilities lean toward a Wycombe home win (60.9%) rather than a draw (21.9%) or an away win (17.2%). There’s also a slight lean toward a match with goals, with over 2.5 goals at 52.3% and both teams to score at 53.4%, so the home win case isn’t fully “safe” if Stevenage manage to find a goal. With confidence at 37 and risk marked high, the main caution is the limited away data for Stevenage and the modest overall sample sizes. Wycombe look more likely to win, but the margin of advantage appears limited.