Championship
Pre-match
High risk

West Brom vs Burnley

Sun, Aug 23, 11:00 AMThe Hawthorns

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 42/100

Model verdict
High risk

Home Win

West Brom (DWWDL) project at 1.5 expected goals versus 1.1 for Burnley (D). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 42/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

42/100

Confidence
42/100

Strongest cover

1X

74.7% probability

Risk classification

High

26.1% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

WB win48.6%
Draw26.1%
B win25.3%

Goals

Over 1.574.1%
Over 2.548.2%
Under 2.551.8%

Both teams to score

Yes52.9%
No47.1%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

West Brom

8/15 recent form points

DWWDL
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.04
Shots on target
Unavailable

Burnley

1/3 recent form points

D
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
2.00
Shots on target
Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 5/10 and Over 2.5 in 4/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version
livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source
Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline
2025 season
Odds timestamp
No odds available
Optional coverage
H2H available · no odds
Confidence
Signal agreement score
Risk
High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Burnley 1-1 West Brom

2025-03-11T20:45:00+01:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

West Brom 0-0 Burnley

2024-11-07T21:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Burnley 2-1 West Brom

2023-01-20T21:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

West Brom 1-1 Burnley

2022-09-02T21:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Burnley 0-0 West Brom

2021-02-20T16:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

West Brom 0-0 Burnley

2020-10-19T18:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

West Brom 1-2 Burnley

2018-03-31T16:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Burnley 0-1 West Brom

2017-08-19T16:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Burnley 2-2 West Brom

2017-05-06T16:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

West Brom 4-0 Burnley

2016-11-21T21:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

West Brom at home have a slightly stronger overall profile than Burnley’s limited away sample. West Brom’s season record is 13W 14D 19L with 48 goals scored and 58 conceded, while Burnley’s away data provided is only 1 match (0W 1D 0L) with 2 goals for and 2 against. In recent form, West Brom’s sequence is DWWDL, which includes two wins and two draws across five matches, suggesting they can avoid defeat and still produce results. Burnley’s only recent entry is D, so their current form signal here is less informative. The goal outlook is mixed but leans toward scoring. Both teams to score is listed at 52.9%, and over 2.5 goals at 48.2%, which points to a fairly even chance of a low-scoring game versus a match with enough momentum for three or more goals. Given the home win probability of 48.6% versus draw 26.1% and away win 25.3%, the home side is the marginal lean, but the confidence is low (42) and the risk is high, consistent with the close overall balance and Burnley’s very small away dataset.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Sat, 22 Aug 2026 09:30 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

Team hubs: West Brom predictions · Burnley predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.