Serie A
Pre-match
Medium risk

Vitoria vs Botafogo

Sun, Aug 16, 09:30 PMBarradao

AI prediction

BTTS Yes

Confidence 70/100

Model verdict
Medium risk

BTTS Yes

Vitoria (WDLLL) project at 1.5 expected goals versus 1.3 for Botafogo (LWDWD). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean BTTS Yes at 70/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

70/100

Confidence
70/100

Strongest cover

12

73.6% probability

Risk classification

Medium

26.4% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

V win41.3%
Draw26.4%
B win32.3%

Goals

Over 1.577.5%
Over 2.552.9%
Under 2.547.1%

Both teams to score

Yes57.3%
No42.7%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Vitoria

4/15 recent form points

WDLLL
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.00
Shots on target
Unavailable

Botafogo

8/15 recent form points

LWDWD
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.67
Shots on target
Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 3/10 and Over 2.5 in 2/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version
livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source
Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline
2026 season
Odds timestamp
No odds available
Optional coverage
H2H available · no odds
Confidence
Signal agreement score
Risk
Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Botafogo 0-0 Vitoria

2026-07-24T00:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Vitoria 0-0 Botafogo

2025-11-09T20:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Botafogo 0-0 Vitoria

2025-07-17T02:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Botafogo 1-1 Vitoria

2024-11-23T23:30:00+01:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Vitoria 0-1 Botafogo

2024-07-12T02:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Vitoria 1-2 Botafogo

2024-05-23T00:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Botafogo 1-0 Vitoria

2024-05-03T00:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Vitoria 0-0 Botafogo

2021-09-30T02:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Botafogo 1-0 Vitoria

2021-07-01T02:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Vitoria 3-4 Botafogo

2018-09-23T23:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Vitoria at home have scored 22 goals in 22 matches and conceded 33, with 8 clean sheets. Their recent form is mixed, showing WDLLL in the latest stretch, which suggests they can struggle to consistently control games, especially defensively. Botafogo away have scored 35 goals in 21 matches and conceded 33, with only 3 clean sheets. Their recent form is also not dominant, with LWDWD, but their goal output away is relatively strong, which supports the idea that they can contribute offensively even if results vary. With both sides having similar concession totals (Vitoria 33, Botafogo 33) and moderate scoring rates, the matchup profile leans toward both teams finding goals. That aligns with the BTTS Yes probability of 57.3% and the over 2.5 goals probability of 52.9%, indicating a slight edge but not a clear lock. The overall result probabilities are fairly balanced, with home win 41.3%, draw 26.4%, and away win 32.3%, so the safer expectation is a game where scoring is shared rather than one team fully taking over.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Sat, 15 Aug 2026 09:31 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

Team hubs: Vitoria predictions · Botafogo predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.