UEFA Europa League
Pre-match
High risk

Vikingur Reykjavik vs FC Thun

Thu, Aug 13, 05:30 PM

AI prediction

Away Win

Confidence 46/100

Model verdict
High risk

Away Win

Vikingur Reykjavik (L) project at 1.1 expected goals versus 1.4 for FC Thun (W). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Away Win at 46/100 confidence with high risk.

Confidence

46/100

Confidence
46/100

Strongest cover

X2

74.9% probability

Risk classification

High

25.4% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

VR win25.1%
Draw25.4%
FT win49.5%

Goals

Over 1.571.2%
Over 2.544.6%
Under 2.555.4%

Both teams to score

Yes50.4%
No49.6%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Vikingur Reykjavik

0/3 recent form points

L
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
0.00
Shots on target
Unavailable

FC Thun

3/3 recent form points

W
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
3.00
Shots on target
Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 0/1 and Over 2.5 in 1/1.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version
livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source
Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline
2026 season
Odds timestamp
No odds available
Optional coverage
H2H available · no odds
Confidence
Signal agreement score
Risk
High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

FC Thun 3-0 Vikingur Reykjavik

2026-08-06T20:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

FC Thun look slightly more likely to win away, with their 1W 0D 0L start and 3 goals scored while conceding 0 in their only match. Vikingur Reykjavik have 0W 0D 1L with 0 goals scored and 3 conceded, which keeps their home edge limited in the early sample. The draw probability is close to the home win probability (25.4% vs 25.1%), while the away win is higher at 49.5%. That gap suggests Thun have the stronger start, but the overall confidence is modest, reflected in the 46 confidence score and the high risk level. On goals, both teams to score is just above even at 50.4%, and over 2.5 goals is at 44.6%, so a higher-scoring game is not strongly supported by these stats. With Thun having a clean sheet in their only match, there is some chance of a controlled result, but Vikingur’s lack of scoring means the most likely outcomes could still be relatively tight. Overall, the away win lean fits the current scoring and defensive snapshot for Thun, but the limited match sample and the near-even draw/BTTS rates keep the result uncertain.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Wed, 12 Aug 2026 11:03 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

Team hubs: Vikingur Reykjavik predictions · FC Thun predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.