Verdes vs Municipal
Fri, Aug 7, 01:00 AMFFB Field
Model verdict
High risk
Away Win
Verdes (LLLL) project at 1.3 expected goals versus 1.8 for Municipal (DDWD). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Away Win at 40/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.
Confidence
40/100
Confidence
40/100
Head-to-Head
Recent head-to-head data is unavailable on the current API tier.
Odds Comparison
No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.
Model reasoning
Municipal look more likely to win away, with 52.9% for the away result versus 24.1% for Verdes and 23.0% for a draw. Municipal’s record of 1W 3D 0L contrasts with Verdes’ 0W 0D 4L, and Municipal have conceded fewer goals overall (7) than Verdes (17).
The goal profile also leans toward Municipal. Municipal have scored 8 goals compared with Verdes’ 4, and the match is more likely to produce goals overall, with 59.2% for over 2.5 goals. Both teams to score is slightly more favored as well at 61.0%, which fits the idea that Verdes’ defense has been leaky while Municipal can still find chances.
The confidence is relatively low (40) and the risk is high, mainly because Verdes have been consistently losing and also because their recent form is uniformly poor (LLLL), which can sometimes lead to unpredictable scorelines. Still, given Municipal’s better results and stronger goal numbers, an away win is the most supported outcome among the provided probabilities.
Recorded forecast
This forecast was recorded on Thu, 06 Aug 2026 22:13 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.
Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.
