Valencia vs Newcastle

Valencia at home has a relatively balanced record across five matches, with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, and they’ve scored 8 goals while conceding 7. Their recent form includes two losses but also a win and a draw in the last five, suggesting they can compete, even if consistency is mixed. Newcastle away has struggled in this sample, going 0 wins with 2 draws and 3 losses, while scoring 5 and conceding 12. They also have no clean sheets, which points to vulnerability defensively when playing away. The goal indicators lean toward a fairly open game. Valencia’s goals for and against are close, and Newcastle’s higher concession rate supports the idea that more than 2.5 total goals is slightly more likely than not (53.1%). Both teams to score is also marginally favored (53.8%), aligning with Newcastle’s lack of clean sheets and Valencia’s ability to find goals. Overall, the home win lean (60.2%) fits the gap in results and defensive stability, but the confidence is not high given Valencia’s mixed recent form and Newcastle’s ability to draw some matches. With a high risk level and only moderate confidence (43), the outcome could still swing toward a draw or a low-scoring upset.