J1 League
Finished
Medium risk

Urawa vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima

14Full time
Sat, Aug 15, 10:00 AMSaitama Stadium

AI prediction

BTTS Yes

Confidence 63/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.
Model verdict
Medium risk

BTTS Yes

Urawa (WLLDL) project at 1.3 expected goals versus 1.4 for Sanfrecce Hiroshima (WWWWW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean BTTS Yes at 63/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

63/100

Confidence
63/100

Strongest cover

12

73.8% probability

Risk classification

Medium

26.2% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

U win32.3%
Draw26.2%
SH win41.5%

Goals

Over 1.575.9%
Over 2.550.6%
Under 2.549.4%

Both teams to score

Yes55.6%
No44.4%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Urawa

4/15 recent form points

WLLDL
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.30
Shots on target
Unavailable

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

15/15 recent form points

WWWWW
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.70
Shots on target
Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 4/10 and Over 2.5 in 6/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version
livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source
Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline
2026 season
Odds timestamp
No odds available
Optional coverage
H2H available · no odds
Confidence
Signal agreement score
Risk
Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Urawa 1-4 Sanfrecce Hiroshima

2026-08-15T12:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3-0 Urawa

2025-11-09T05:01:00+01:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Urawa 1-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima

2025-04-25T12:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Urawa 3-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima

2024-11-10T07:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2-0 Urawa

2024-02-23T06:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2-1 Urawa

2023-08-13T11:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Urawa 2-1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima

2023-05-31T12:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 4-1 Urawa

2022-10-01T08:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Urawa 0-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima

2022-05-13T12:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Urawa 1-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima

2021-08-25T12:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Sanfrecce Hiroshima look slightly more likely to take points, with a stronger overall record (12W-8L vs Urawa’s 7W-12L) and better recent form, winning their last five matches. Urawa’s home record is weaker, and their recent sequence includes multiple losses, which limits confidence in a clean home win. The matchup profile supports both teams scoring. Urawa have scored 26 in 20 matches and conceded 25, while Sanfrecce have scored 34 and conceded 24, with both sides also having relatively few clean sheets (Urawa 6, Sanfrecce 5). That balance aligns with the both teams to score probability of 55.6%. Over 2.5 goals is only slightly more likely than not at 50.6%, so a tight game is plausible. Still, given Sanfrecce’s strong scoring output and Urawa’s tendency to concede, BTTS Yes fits better than relying on a low-scoring script. With a confidence score of 63 and medium risk, BTTS Yes is a reasonable lean, but the close over/under outlook suggests the match could swing toward a one-sided scoring pattern rather than guaranteed scoring from both teams.

Recorded forecast

Final score

1-4

Pre-kickoff call

BTTS Yes · 55.6% → Won

Ranked probability score

0.2239 (uniform ≈ 0.222)

Recorded Fri, 14 Aug 2026 09:31 UTC, before kickoff, unpriced, by livewin-hybrid-v0.6. Counted in the public track record.

Team hubs: Urawa predictions · Sanfrecce Hiroshima predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.