UEFA Europa League
Pre-match
High risk

Universitatea Craiova vs KuPS

Thu, Aug 13, 05:00 PMStadionul Ion Oblemenco

AI prediction

Under 2.5 Goals

Confidence 35/100

Model verdict
High risk

Under 2.5 Goals

Universitatea Craiova (D) project at 1.3 expected goals versus 1.1 for KuPS (WWLL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Under 2.5 Goals at 35/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2026 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

35/100

Confidence
35/100

Strongest cover

12

71.8% probability

Risk classification

High

28.2% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

UC win39.5%
Draw28.2%
K win32.3%

Goals

Over 1.570%
Over 2.543.1%
Under 2.556.9%

Both teams to score

Yes49%
No51%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Universitatea Craiova

1/3 recent form points

D
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.00
Shots on target
Unavailable

KuPS

6/12 recent form points

WWLL
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
0.75
Shots on target
Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 1/1 and Over 2.5 in 0/1.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version
livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source
Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline
2026 season
Odds timestamp
No odds available
Optional coverage
H2H available · no odds
Confidence
Signal agreement score
Risk
High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

KuPS 1-1 Universitatea Craiova

2026-08-06T17:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Universitatea Craiova at home has only played one match, finishing level 1-1 with one goal scored and one conceded. That small sample suggests a relatively tight game profile, with no clean sheet yet. KuPS away has been more mixed, with 2 wins and 2 losses across four matches. They’ve scored 3 and conceded 7 on the road, which points to some defensive vulnerability, but also indicates they can keep games from becoming consistently high-scoring. With Craiova’s limited scoring output and KuPS conceding more than scoring, the matchup leans toward fewer total goals rather than a shootout. The probabilities also reflect this tilt, with over 2.5 goals at 43.1% and both teams to score at 49.0%, leaving the under 2.5 outcome as the more plausible direction, though not strongly. Confidence is modest (35) and the risk is high because the available data is limited for Craiova and KuPS’s away results include both wins and losses, which can swing the goal total either way.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Wed, 12 Aug 2026 11:03 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

Team hubs: Universitatea Craiova predictions · KuPS predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.