Union St. Gilloise vs Zulte Waregem

Union St. Gilloise at home have been strong in the league, with 25 wins, 11 draws and 4 losses across 40 matches, plus a solid goal record of 66 scored and 27 conceded. They also keep the ball out of the net often, with 19 clean sheets, which supports the idea that they can control the game and avoid a heavy defeat. Zulte Waregem’s away record is less convincing, with 13 wins, 9 draws and 14 losses in 36 matches. Their goal numbers are more balanced but not dominant on the road, scoring 53 and conceding 53, and they have fewer clean sheets (8), suggesting they may struggle to consistently stop the home side. The recent form leans toward Zulte Waregem in the short term (WWWWW), but Union St. Gilloise’s overall home profile and defensive output still look better across the season. The probabilities reflect this split: home win is favored (59.1%) while a draw remains plausible (23.6%), and the away win is less likely (17.3%). For goals, the match is close to a coin flip: over 2.5 goals is just under the threshold (49.8%) and both teams to score is slightly more likely than not (50.6%). With that uncertainty, the home win case is reasonable but not strongly secure, aligning with the higher risk level.