Union St. Gilloise vs Bodo/Glimt
3–3Full timeTue, Aug 4, 06:00 PMKVDO Arena
This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.
Model verdict
High risk
BTTS Yes
Union St. Gilloise (LWLLW) project at 1.4 expected goals versus 1.6 for Bodo/Glimt (WWWWL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean BTTS Yes at 47/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.
Confidence
47/100
Confidence
47/100
Head-to-Head
Union St. Gilloise 0-0 Bodo/Glimt
2024-10-03T21:00:00+02:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Odds Comparison
No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.
Model reasoning
Bodo/Glimt look slightly more likely to come out on top, with a higher away win probability (43.2% vs 31.3% for Union St. Gilloise). Their season record is also stronger overall (6W 3D 5L) than Union’s (3W 0D 5L), which supports the idea that the away side can create enough chances to score.
The BTTS Yes angle is supported by both teams’ goal profiles. Union have scored 8 in 8 matches but conceded 17, and they’ve kept only 2 clean sheets, suggesting they can be breached. Bodo/Glimt have scored 28 and conceded 24 across 14 matches, with only 2 clean sheets, which also points toward both sides finding goals.
The match also leans toward goals in general, with over 2.5 goals at 57.1% and both teams to score at 60.3%. With a confidence score of 47 and a high risk level, this is not a lock, but the combination of Union’s defensive concession rate and Bodo/Glimt’s scoring output makes BTTS the most consistent fit among the provided probabilities.
Recorded forecast
Final score
3-3
Pre-kickoff call
BTTS Yes · 60.3% → Won
Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.
