Toluca W vs Juárez W

Toluca W at home have a stronger overall record than Juárez W, with 22 wins from 40 matches versus 15 wins from 38. Their goal profile is also better, scoring 83 and conceding 60, which supports the idea that they can create more scoring chances and limit Juárez’s output. Juárez W’s defense looks relatively solid, conceding 40 in 38 matches and keeping 15 clean sheets, so a home win is not guaranteed. Their recent form is steadier than Toluca’s, with two draws in their last five, while Toluca’s last five includes more losses, which adds volatility to the matchup. The goal-related indicators lean toward a relatively open game: over 2.5 goals is favored at 56.2%, and both teams to score is even more likely at 58.7%. That combination fits a scenario where Toluca can edge the result, but Juárez still has enough defensive quality and scoring potential to make it competitive. With home win at 50.7% and a confidence score of 52, the home win case is only slightly favored, so the risk is high. The stats suggest Toluca W have the edge, but the match outcome could easily swing toward a draw or a narrow Juárez win.