J1 League
Finished
Medium risk

Tokyo Verdy vs Kashiwa Reysol

13Full time
Fri, Aug 14, 10:00 AMAjinomoto Stadium

AI prediction

BTTS Yes

Confidence 70/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.
Model verdict
Medium risk

BTTS Yes

Tokyo Verdy (LWLDL) project at 1.5 expected goals versus 1.3 for Kashiwa Reysol (WWWWL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean BTTS Yes at 70/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

70/100

Confidence
70/100

Strongest cover

12

73.5% probability

Risk classification

Medium

26.5% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

TV win42.3%
Draw26.5%
KR win31.2%

Goals

Over 1.576.8%
Over 2.551.9%
Under 2.548.1%

Both teams to score

Yes56.4%
No43.6%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Tokyo Verdy

4/15 recent form points

LWLDL
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.25
Shots on target
Unavailable

Kashiwa Reysol

12/15 recent form points

WWWWL
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.40
Shots on target
Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 5/10 and Over 2.5 in 7/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version
livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source
Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline
2026 season
Odds timestamp
No odds available
Optional coverage
H2H available · no odds
Confidence
Signal agreement score
Risk
Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Tokyo Verdy 1-3 Kashiwa Reysol

2026-08-14T12:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Tokyo Verdy 1-0 Kashiwa Reysol

2026-05-03T07:03:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Kashiwa Reysol 1-2 Tokyo Verdy

2026-02-15T06:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Tokyo Verdy 0-3 Kashiwa Reysol

2025-06-15T11:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Kashiwa Reysol 2-1 Tokyo Verdy

2025-06-08T12:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Tokyo Verdy 0-3 Kashiwa Reysol

2025-06-04T12:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Kashiwa Reysol 0-0 Tokyo Verdy

2025-03-29T06:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Kashiwa Reysol 2-3 Tokyo Verdy

2024-08-31T12:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Tokyo Verdy 1-1 Kashiwa Reysol

2024-04-07T06:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Kashiwa Reysol 3-0 Tokyo Verdy

2019-09-28T08:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Tokyo Verdy at home have a mixed record with 10 wins, 1 draw, and 9 losses, scoring 25 and conceding 31 across 20 matches. Their clean sheets are 5, which suggests they can keep games tight at times, but they also allow goals often enough to keep both-teams scoring in play. Kashiwa Reysol away have struggled for results with 8 wins and 12 losses, but their goal numbers are fairly balanced with 28 scored and 27 conceded. They also have 5 clean sheets, so they are capable defensively, yet the overall scoring and conceding profile supports the idea that they may still concede. The matchup probabilities lean toward goals and scoring from both sides, with both teams to score at 56.4% and over 2.5 goals at 51.9%. With Tokyo Verdy’s recent form reading LWLDL and Kashiwa’s WW WWL trend, the game looks more like a competitive, goal-involving contest than a clear one-sided outcome. So BTTS Yes fits best among the provided signals, though the confidence is only moderate (70) and the draw and low-scoring variance mean it’s not a lock.

Recorded forecast

Final score

1-3

Pre-kickoff call

BTTS Yes · 56.4% → Won

Ranked probability score

0.3272 (uniform ≈ 0.222)

Recorded Thu, 13 Aug 2026 09:30 UTC, before kickoff, unpriced, by livewin-hybrid-v0.6. Counted in the public track record.

Team hubs: Tokyo Verdy predictions · Kashiwa Reysol predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.