Tlaxcala vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca

Tlaxcala at home has a slightly stronger overall record than Alebrijes de Oaxaca on the road, with 8W 10D 10L versus 7W 8D 13L. Their goal profile is also a bit more balanced, scoring 30 and conceding 44, while Oaxaca scores 36 but concedes 54, suggesting more defensive vulnerability away from home. The recent form leans mildly toward Tlaxcala, with a sequence of D W L D D, while Oaxaca’s is L D L L W. That mix of results supports a home edge, even if it’s not dominant, aligning with the home win probability being just over 50%. For goals, the match is more likely to be open than low-scoring, with over 2.5 goals at 55.0%. Both teams to score is even more favored at 57.6%, which fits the combination of Tlaxcala’s 44 conceded and Oaxaca’s 54 conceded, despite Tlaxcala having more clean sheets (7 vs 4). Overall, the home win call looks reasonable but not secure, reflected by the 52 confidence score and the high risk level. The most supportive angle from these stats is that Tlaxcala can edge the result at home, while the game still has a meaningful chance of involving goals from both sides.