Sydney United vs NWS Spirit

Sydney United have the stronger overall record at 16W-3D-6L compared with NWS Spirit’s 9W-4D-12L, and they also lead in goal difference with 35 scored and 18 conceded versus 28 scored and 34 conceded. Their 12 clean sheets suggest they’re more capable of controlling games defensively, which supports the home win lean. The recent form also tilts toward Sydney United, with LDWWL in their last five compared to NWS Spirit’s WDWLL. That pattern aligns with the probabilities given, where the home win is 59.4% versus 16.4% for an away win, while the draw remains fairly plausible at 24.2%. In terms of scoring, the match is closer to a low-to-mid scoring profile than a high one, with over 2.5 goals at 44.7% and both teams to score at 46.6%. Given Sydney United’s defensive edge and higher clean-sheet count, a tighter game is more likely than a shootout, though the “both teams to score” rate indicates NWS Spirit can still find chances. Overall, the home win prediction fits the season performance gap and the defensive records, but the moderate confidence (73) and the sizable draw probability mean it’s not a lock, and the game could swing if NWS Spirit score early.