Swansea vs Birmingham

Swansea at home have been more effective across their four matches, with a 3W 0D 1L record and 9 goals scored versus 7 conceded. Their recent run includes three wins in the last four games (WWWL), which supports the idea of them edging the matchup. Birmingham’s away record is less convincing, with 1W 0D 1L and only 2 goals scored in two matches, while also conceding 2. Their recent form is mixed (WL), and they have not kept a clean sheet in their two games, which leaves them vulnerable if Swansea can create chances. The goal profile points to a fairly open game. Swansea’s 9 scored and 7 conceded, combined with Birmingham’s 2 scored and 2 conceded, aligns with the probabilities for over 2.5 goals (55.4%) and both teams to score (56.8%). That makes a Swansea win plausible, but not dominant, since Birmingham can still find goals. With home win at 57.9% and confidenceScore at 38 with a high risk level, the Swansea win lean looks reasonable but not strongly secure, especially given Birmingham’s ability to avoid losing outright in their limited sample.