Surkhon (DWLLW) project at 1.2 expected goals versus 1.3 for Navbahor (DLDDW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Away Win at 73/100 confidence with medium risk.
Confidence
73/100
Navbahor 2-0 Surkhon
2026-04-12T13:00:00+02:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Navbahor 0-0 Surkhon
2025-09-12T16:30:00+02:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Surkhon 1-0 Navbahor
2025-04-21T17:00:00+02:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Surkhon 0-1 Navbahor
2024-08-26T17:00:00+02:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Navbahor 2-2 Surkhon
2024-03-31T16:00:00+02:00
BTTS
Over 2.5
Surkhon 1-2 Navbahor
2023-10-27T15:00:00+02:00
BTTS
Over 2.5
This forecast was recorded on Fri, 07 Aug 2026 10:08 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.
Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.
AI prediction
Away Win
Confidence 73/100
Strongest cover
X2
79.4% probability
Risk classification
Medium
24.4% draw weight
Value status
Pass
No qualified price edge
Market sample
6 sources
54 price observations
Full distribution
1X2
Goals
Both teams to score
Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.
Inputs behind the forecast
Surkhon
7/15 recent form points
Navbahor
6/15 recent form points
The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.
Recent meetings: BTTS in 3/10 and Over 2.5 in 3/10.
Price interpretation
No qualified edge at this snapshot
None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.
Provenance
Navbahor 2-0 Surkhon
2023-09-03T15:00:00+02:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Navbahor 1-0 Surkhon
2023-05-14T16:00:00+02:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Navbahor 2-0 Surkhon
2022-08-11T17:00:00+02:00
No BTTS
Under 2.5
Surkhon 1-2 Navbahor
2022-03-10T14:30:00+01:00
BTTS
Over 2.5
| Market | Bookmaker | Odds | Implied | AI | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Home 1X2 | Bet365Best price +5.1% | 4.50 | 22.2% | 20.6% | -1.6% |
| BetVictor | 4.40 | 22.7% | 20.6% | -2.1% | |
| Betfair | 4.33 | 23.1% | 20.6% | -2.5% | |
| Marathonbet | 4.25 | 23.5% | 20.6% | -2.9% | |
| 10Bet | 4.20 | 23.8% | 20.6% | -3.2% | |
| William Hill | 4.00 | 25.0% | 20.6% | -4.4% | |
Draw 1X2 | BetfairBest price +4.2% | 3.75 | 26.7% | 24.4% | -2.3% |
| Marathonbet | 3.70 | 27.0% | 24.4% | -2.6% | |
| BetVictor | 3.70 | 27.0% | 24.4% | -2.6% | |
| 10Bet | 3.55 | 28.2% | 24.4% | -3.8% | |
| Bet365 | 3.50 | 28.6% | 24.4% | -4.2% | |
| William Hill | 3.40 | 29.4% | 24.4% | -5.0% | |
Away 1X2 | William HillBest price +0.4% | 1.67 | 59.9% | 55.0% | -4.9% |
| Bet365 | 1.67 | 59.9% | 55.0% | -4.9% | |
| Betfair | 1.67 | 59.9% | 55.0% | -4.9% | |
| BetVictor | 1.67 | 59.9% | 55.0% | -4.9% | |
| 10Bet | 1.65 | 60.6% | 55.0% | -5.6% | |
| Marathonbet | 1.65 | 60.6% | 55.0% | -5.6% | |
Over 2.5 Totals | Bet365Best price +11.4% | 2.00 | 50.0% | 51.3% | +1.3% |
| 10Bet | 1.80 | 55.6% | 51.3% | -4.3% | |
| Betfair | 1.73 | 57.8% | 51.3% | -6.5% | |
| BetVictor | 1.73 | 57.8% | 51.3% | -6.5% | |
| Marathonbet | 1.72 | 58.1% | 51.3% | -6.8% | |
Under 2.5 Totals | BetfairBest price +4.4% | 2.00 | 50.0% | 48.7% | -1.3% |
| BetVictor | 2.00 | 50.0% | 48.7% | -1.3% | |
| Marathonbet | 1.98 | 50.5% | 48.7% | -1.8% | |
| 10Bet | 1.80 | 55.6% | 48.7% | -6.9% | |
| Bet365 | 1.80 | 55.6% | 48.7% | -6.9% | |
No BTTS | William HillBest price +3.2% | 2.10 | 47.6% | 45.4% | -2.2% |
| BetVictor | 2.05 | 48.8% | 45.4% | -3.4% | |
| Betfair | 2.00 | 50.0% | 45.4% | -4.6% | |
| Marathonbet | 1.99 | 50.3% | 45.4% | -4.9% | |
Yes BTTS | BetfairBest price +4.2% | 1.75 | 57.1% | 54.6% | -2.5% |
| Marathonbet | 1.68 | 59.5% | 54.6% | -4.9% | |
| BetVictor | 1.67 | 59.9% | 54.6% | -5.3% | |
| William Hill | 1.62 | 61.7% | 54.6% | -7.1% | |
Home or Draw Double Chance | 10BetBest price +3.9% | 2.10 | 47.6% | 0.0% | -47.6% |
| BetVictor | 2.05 | 48.8% | 0.0% | -48.8% | |
| William Hill | 2.00 | 50.0% | 0.0% | -50.0% | |
| Bet365 | 2.00 | 50.0% | 0.0% | -50.0% | |
| Betfair | 2.00 | 50.0% | 0.0% | -50.0% | |
| Marathonbet | 1.98 | 50.5% | 0.0% | -50.5% | |
Home or Away Double Chance | William HillBest price +3.3% | 1.25 | 80.0% | 0.0% | -80.0% |
| Bet365 | 1.22 | 82.0% | 0.0% | -82.0% | |
| BetVictor | 1.22 | 82.0% | 0.0% | -82.0% | |
| Betfair | 1.20 | 83.3% | 0.0% | -83.3% | |
| Marathonbet | 1.19 | 84.0% | 0.0% | -84.0% | |
| 10Bet | 1.18 | 84.7% | 0.0% | -84.7% | |
Draw or Away Double Chance | William HillBest price +3.9% | 1.20 | 83.3% | 0.0% | -83.3% |
| Betfair | 1.17 | 85.5% | 0.0% | -85.5% | |
| BetVictor | 1.17 | 85.5% | 0.0% | -85.5% | |
| Marathonbet | 1.14 | 87.7% | 0.0% | -87.7% | |
| 10Bet | 1.13 | 88.5% | 0.0% | -88.5% | |
| Bet365 | 1.12 | 89.3% | 0.0% | -89.3% |
Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.