Super Nova 2 vs Riga Mariners
0–3Full timeFri, Jul 31, 04:00 PMSporta centrs Krasts
This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.
Model verdict
Medium risk
Away Win
Super Nova 2 (LWDLD) project at 1.3 expected goals versus 1.4 for Riga Mariners (WWWLD). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Away Win at 71/100 confidence with medium risk.
Confidence
71/100
Confidence
71/100
Head-to-Head
Riga Mariners 1-1 Super Nova 2
2026-04-04T16:00:00+02:00
BTTS
Under 2.5
Odds Comparison
| Market | Bookmaker | Odds | Implied | AI | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Home 1X2 | MarathonbetBest price +8.2% | 5.70 | 17.5% | 16.5% | -1.0% |
| William Hill | 5.50 | 18.2% |
Model reasoning
Riga Mariners look stronger on both results and defensive solidity. They have 8 wins from 14 matches compared with Super Nova 2’s 5 wins, and Riga’s goals conceded are notably lower (13 vs 20), with more clean sheets (5 vs 3).
The scoring profile also leans toward Riga. Riga have scored 27 goals to Super Nova 2’s 21, and the match is projected to clear 2.5 total goals (63.2%), with both teams to score slightly more likely than not (58.2%).
With Super Nova 2’s recent form reading LWDLD, their ability to convert results appears less consistent than Riga’s WWWLD run. That combination supports the away win lean, reflected in the away win probability of 62.9%.
Overall, the away win prediction is reasonable but not guaranteed, so the medium risk level fits. The draw still carries a meaningful chance at 20.6%, which is why the confidence is not higher.
Recorded forecast
Final score
0-3
Pre-kickoff call
Away Win · 62.9% → Won
Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.
