Sturt Lions vs Adelaide Comets

Sturt Lions have a stronger overall record at 8W 2D 10L compared with Adelaide Comets’ 4W 4D 12L, and their goal difference is slightly positive (34 scored, 33 conceded versus Adelaide’s 20 scored, 36 conceded). That combination supports a home edge, aligning with the home win probability of 61.5%. In recent form, Sturt Lions’ sequence LWDWD suggests they are more consistent at avoiding defeat than Adelaide, whose recent run LLLWL includes three straight losses before the latest win. While neither side looks dominant, Sturt’s pattern fits better with the medium-risk home win view. The match also leans toward goals: Sturt have scored 34 across 20 matches and conceded 33, while Adelaide have scored 20 and conceded 36. With over 2.5 goals at 59.1% and both teams to score at 57.8%, the profile suggests a game where Adelaide can still contribute, even if Sturt are more likely to edge the result. Overall, the home win call is reasonable but not assured given Adelaide’s ability to pick up results late in their recent form and the relatively close scoring/conceding rates.