St. Louis City vs Real Salt Lake

St. Louis City at home has a balanced but slightly positive profile, with 7 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses across 17 matches, and goals scored and conceded both at 23. Their recent run is strong at the moment, showing DWWWW, which supports the idea that they can avoid a poor result and keep games under control. Real Salt Lake away is also competitive, with 8 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses in 16 matches, and a modest edge in scoring (28 scored vs 24 conceded). Their recent form is mixed, WWDLL, suggesting they can win when things go their way but may struggle to sustain momentum across matches. The probabilities point to a close contest, with St. Louis City just ahead for a home win at 52.6% versus 23.8% for a draw and 23.6% for an away win. Over 2.5 goals is more likely than not at 56.0%, and both teams to score is also favored at 58.4%, which fits a scenario where St. Louis can edge the match without it necessarily being a low-scoring shutout. Overall, the home win lean aligns with the current form and the slight home advantage in the win probability, but the draw and away-win chances remain substantial, so the confidence is only medium rather than high.