South Melbourne vs Adelaide United
Thu, Jul 30, 09:30 AMLakeside Stadium
Model verdict
High risk
Home Win
South Melbourne (WL) project at 1.6 expected goals versus 1.2 for Adelaide United (L). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 35/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.
Confidence
35/100
Confidence
35/100
Head-to-Head
Recent head-to-head data is unavailable on the current API tier.
Odds Comparison
No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.
AI Reasoning
Profile angle: the scoring, conceding, form and venue signals produce the Home Win lean for South Melbourne vs Adelaide United.
Data angle: team strength uses the 2025 historical baseline and confidence is deliberately capped.
Market angle: pre-match odds are unavailable, so no model-versus-market edge is claimed.
Risk warning: High risk. This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guaranteed outcome.
Recorded forecast
This forecast was recorded on Wed, 29 Jul 2026 21:26 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.
Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.