Pre-match

Low risk

Value +17.6%

South Hobart II vs Taroona

Fri, Jul 31, 10:15 AM

Model verdict

Low risk

Over 2.5 Goals

South Hobart II (WLWWW) project at 2.7 expected goals versus 1.5 for Taroona (WDDLW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Over 2.5 Goals at 77/100 confidence with low risk. The strongest fair-price edge is Draw or Away at 17.6 percentage points.

Confidence

77/100

Confidence

77/100

Head-to-Head

Taroona 2-3 South Hobart II

2026-05-09T06:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Taroona 0-1 South Hobart II

2025-07-12T06:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

South Hobart II 1-2 Taroona

2025-04-26T06:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Taroona 9-0 South Hobart II

2024-07-27T06:45:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

South Hobart II 1-2 Taroona

2024-05-12T06:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

AI Reasoning

Profile angle: the scoring, conceding, form and venue signals produce the Over 2.5 Goals lean for South Hobart II vs Taroona. Data angle: the model weights recent form, attack and defensive stability. Market angle: Draw or Away shows a 17.6% value gap. Risk warning: Low risk. This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guaranteed outcome.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Fri, 31 Jul 2026 01:44 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

South Hobart II

12/15 recent form points

WLWWW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 4.79
Shots on target: Unavailable

Taroona

8/15 recent form points

WDDLW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 3.00
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 3/5 and Over 2.5 in 4/5.

Price interpretation

Value read

Double Chance · William Hill

Draw or Away

Model edge

+17.6 pp

Model: 36.8%
Market fair: 19.3%
Price: 2.80

The model assigns this outcome a higher chance than the margin-adjusted market view. Its model-fair price is 2.72 versus 2.80 offered. That is a disagreement with the market, not a promise of profit.

Provenance

Model card

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Draw 1X2	William HillBest price +5.3%	5.00	20.0%	17.7%	-2.3%
	Betfair	5.00	20.0%	17.7%	-2.3%
	Betano	4.70	21.3%	17.7%	-3.6%
	Marathonbet	4.65	21.5%	17.7%	-3.8%
	1xBet	4.65	21.5%	17.7%	-3.8%
	Bet365	4.50	22.2%	17.7%	-4.5%
Away 1X2	William HillBest price +7.2%	4.75	21.1%	19.1%	-2.0%
	1xBet	4.74	21.1%	19.1%	-2.0%
	Marathonbet	4.60	21.7%	19.1%	-2.6%
	Betfair	4.50	22.2%	19.1%	-3.1%
	Bet365	4.00	25.0%	19.1%	-5.9%
	Betano	4.00	25.0%	19.1%	-5.9%
Home 1X2	BetanoBest price +4.8%	1.55	64.5%	63.2%	-1.3%
	Bet365	1.53	65.4%	63.2%	-2.2%
	1xBet	1.48	67.6%	63.2%	-4.4%
	Marathonbet	1.47	68.0%	63.2%	-4.8%
	Betfair	1.44	69.4%	63.2%	-6.2%
	William Hill	1.40	71.4%	63.2%	-8.2%
Under 2.5 Totals	1xBetBest price +3.2%	4.80	20.8%	20.0%	-0.8%
	Bet365	4.50	22.2%	20.0%	-2.2%
Over 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +0.9%	1.17	85.5%	80.0%	-5.5%
	1xBet	1.15	87.0%	80.0%	-7.0%
No BTTS	1xBetBest price +4.6%	3.78	26.5%	25.4%	-1.1%
	Marathonbet	3.66	27.3%	25.4%	-1.9%
	William Hill	3.40	29.4%	25.4%	-4.0%
Yes BTTS	William HillBest price +2.2%	1.25	80.0%	74.6%	-5.4%
	Marathonbet	1.21	82.6%	74.6%	-8.0%
	1xBet	1.21	82.6%	74.6%	-8.0%
Draw or Away Double Chance	William HillBest price +16.9%	2.80	35.7%	0.0%	-35.7%
	Betfair	2.50	40.0%	0.0%	-40.0%
	Marathonbet	2.32	43.1%	0.0%	-43.1%
	1xBet	2.32	43.1%	0.0%	-43.1%
	Bet365	2.25	44.4%	0.0%	-44.4%
	Betano	2.18	45.9%	0.0%	-45.9%
Home or Draw Double Chance	BetanoBest price +4.8%	1.20	83.3%	0.0%	-83.3%
	Bet365	1.17	85.5%	0.0%	-85.5%
	Betfair	1.14	87.7%	0.0%	-87.7%
	William Hill	1.12	89.3%	0.0%	-89.3%
	Marathonbet	1.12	89.3%	0.0%	-89.3%
	1xBet	1.12	89.3%	0.0%	-89.3%
Home or Away Double Chance	BetanoBest price +2.8%	1.16	86.2%	0.0%	-86.2%
	Betfair	1.13	88.5%	0.0%	-88.5%
	William Hill	1.12	89.3%	0.0%	-89.3%
	Bet365	1.12	89.3%	0.0%	-89.3%
	Marathonbet	1.12	89.3%	0.0%	-89.3%
	1xBet	1.12	89.3%	0.0%	-89.3%

South Hobart II vs Taroona

Over 2.5 Goals

Head-to-Head

AI Reasoning

Recorded forecast

Market probabilities

Evidence ledger

Matchup xG signal

Value read

Model card

Odds Comparison