Slavia Sofia vs Lokomotiv Sofia

Slavia Sofia at home have a slightly stronger overall record than Lokomotiv Sofia away, with Slavia 12W-10D-15L versus Lokomotiv’s 11W-14D-12L. Their goal profile is also a bit tighter, with Slavia scoring 42 and conceding 44, while Lokomotiv score 51 and concede 48, suggesting both sides can find goals but Slavia’s home defense is marginally steadier. Recent form points to a home edge but with some volatility. Slavia’s latest run is WLLLW, while Lokomotiv’s is DDDWL, which includes more draws and a late win. That pattern aligns with the probabilities showing a meaningful chance of a draw (27.5%) rather than a dominant home outcome. The market signals that scoring is likely to be involved. Over 2.5 goals is at 46.7%, and both teams to score is 52.0%, so a home win is plausible but not strongly supported by a clear “one-sided” game script. With home win at 44.4% and away win at 28.1%, the home win lean is present, but the confidence is only moderate and the risk is high. Overall, the home win call fits the slight home advantage in results and a modest defensive edge, but the close goal and scoring indicators mean it’s better viewed as a lean than a confident prediction.