Jupiler Pro League
Finished
High risk

SK Beveren vs Anderlecht

10Full time
Sun, Aug 16, 11:30 AMFreethiel Stadion

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 44/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.
Model verdict
High risk

Home Win

SK Beveren (LW) project at 1.7 expected goals versus 1.1 for Anderlecht (LDDWL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 44/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2026 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

44/100

Confidence
44/100

Strongest cover

1X

78.9% probability

Risk classification

High

23.6% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

SB win55.3%
Draw23.6%
A win21.1%

Goals

Over 1.577.7%
Over 2.553.2%
Under 2.546.8%

Both teams to score

Yes55.5%
No44.5%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

SK Beveren

3/6 recent form points

LW
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.00
Shots on target
Unavailable

Anderlecht

5/15 recent form points

LDDWL
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.48
Shots on target
Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version
livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source
Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline
2026 season
Odds timestamp
No odds available
Optional coverage
No H2H · no odds
Confidence
Signal agreement score
Risk
High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Recent head-to-head data is unavailable on the current API tier.

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

SK Beveren at home has a short sample of 2 matches, with a 1W 0D 1L record and goals of 2 scored and 2 conceded. They’ve kept one clean sheet, which supports the idea they can be competitive defensively, even if their overall scoring output is limited so far. Anderlecht’s away profile is harder to read from the provided season totals, but their overall record is 15W 10D 15L with 59 goals for and 62 against. That suggests they can score, yet they also concede at a fairly regular rate, which keeps the match from looking one-sided. The probabilities lean slightly toward a Beveren home win (55.3%) rather than a draw (23.6%) or an Anderlecht win (21.1%), but the confidence is modest (44) and the risk is high, consistent with the small home sample for Beveren. For goals, there’s a slight tilt toward over 2.5 goals (53.2%) and both teams to score (55.5%), aligning with the idea that Anderlecht’s ability to find goals could prevent a fully controlled home shutout.

Recorded forecast

Final score

1-0

Pre-kickoff call

BTTS Yes · 58.2% → Lost

Ranked probability score

0.2719 (uniform ≈ 0.222)

Recorded Sun, 16 Aug 2026 00:04 UTC, before kickoff, unpriced, by livewin-hybrid-v0.6. Counted in the public track record.

Team hubs: SK Beveren predictions · Anderlecht predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.