Sarmiento Junin vs Independ. Rivadavia

Independiente Rivadavia’s away profile looks stronger than Sarmiento Junin’s home results, with Independiente having 11 wins in 19 matches versus Sarmiento’s 6 wins in 18. That gap is reflected in the match outcome probabilities, where the away win is more likely than either a draw or a home win. On scoring, Sarmiento has produced 17 goals in 18 matches and conceded 26, while Independiente has scored 32 and conceded 18 across 19 matches. With both teams’ season totals suggesting moderate scoring rather than frequent high-scoring games, the over 2.5 goals probability sits below the 50% mark at 46.5%. The recent form also leans toward caution for goals: Sarmiento’s last five results are LWLLL, while Independiente’s are WDLDW, which includes multiple non-loss outcomes and suggests fewer open-game patterns. Clean sheets are identical at 5 each, supporting the idea that at least one side may keep the scoring under control. Given these factors, an Under 2.5 Goals call aligns with the provided probabilities and the overall goal environment, though the away win likelihood and Independiente’s scoring rate mean it’s not a lock.