Finished

Medium risk

Santos vs Comerciantes

1–0Full time

Sat, Aug 1, 08:15 PMEstadio Municipal de Nasca

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.

Model verdict

Medium risk

Under 2.5 Goals

Santos (WLLWL) project at 1.2 expected goals versus 1.1 for Comerciantes (DWDDW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Under 2.5 Goals at 68/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

68/100

Confidence

68/100

Head-to-Head

Comerciantes 1-0 Santos

2026-04-19T22:20:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Santos 0-0 Comerciantes

2025-09-21T22:15:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Comerciantes 3-0 Santos

2025-08-16T22:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Comerciantes 3-2 Santos

2025-05-25T22:15:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Santos 1-1 Comerciantes

2025-04-05T22:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Comerciantes 1-0 Santos

2024-06-29T22:15:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Model reasoning

Santos at home have been relatively tight defensively, with 11 conceded in 10 matches and only 2 clean sheets, while scoring 10 goals. Their recent form is mixed (WLLWL), suggesting they can produce results but not consistently dominate in scoring. Comerciantes away are stronger defensively, conceding just 6 in 10 matches and keeping 5 clean sheets, alongside 13 goals scored. Their recent form (DWDDW) also points toward controlled games where scoring opportunities may be limited for the opponent. With Santos averaging about 1.0 goals scored per match and Comerciantes allowing about 0.6 goals conceded per match, the matchup profile leans toward fewer total goals. The probabilities provided also support this, with over 2.5 goals at 39.6% and both teams to score at 47.0%, indicating the under is more likely than a high-scoring outcome but not overwhelmingly so. Overall, the under 2.5 goals call fits the defensive edge and the scoring rates shown, with a medium risk level given the closeness of the both-teams-to-score probability.

Recorded forecast

Final score

1-0

Pre-kickoff call

Under 2.5 Goals · 60.4%

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Santos

6/15 recent form points

WLLWL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.00
Shots on target: Unavailable

Comerciantes

9/15 recent form points

DWDDW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.30
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 2/9 and Over 2.5 in 2/9.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Away 1X2	1xBetBest price +6.4%	3.26	30.7%	29.3%	-1.4%
	Marathonbet	3.18	31.4%	29.3%	-2.1%
	Unibet	3.05	32.8%	29.3%	-3.5%
	Bet365	3.00	33.3%	29.3%	-4.0%
	Betfair	3.00	33.3%	29.3%	-4.0%
	10Bet	2.90	34.5%	29.3%	-5.2%
Draw 1X2	Bet365Best price +7.6%	3.00	33.3%	32.2%	-1.1%
	Unibet	2.95	33.9%	32.2%	-1.7%
	10Bet	2.80	35.7%	32.2%	-3.5%
	Betfair	2.80	35.7%	32.2%	-3.5%
	Marathonbet	2.59	38.6%	32.2%	-6.4%
	1xBet	2.59	38.6%	32.2%	-6.4%
Home 1X2	1xBetBest price +4.0%	2.45	40.8%	38.5%	-2.3%
	Marathonbet	2.43	41.2%	38.5%	-2.7%
	10Bet	2.40	41.7%	38.5%	-3.2%
	Betfair	2.38	42.0%	38.5%	-3.5%
	Bet365	2.25	44.4%	38.5%	-5.9%
	Unibet	2.23	44.8%	38.5%	-6.3%
Over 2.5 Totals	MarathonbetBest price +2.5%	2.38	42.0%	39.6%	-2.4%
	1xBet	2.38	42.0%	39.6%	-2.4%
	Bet365	2.35	42.6%	39.6%	-3.0%
	10Bet	2.25	44.4%	39.6%	-4.8%
	Unibet	2.25	44.4%	39.6%	-4.8%
Under 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +3.4%	1.57	63.7%	60.4%	-3.3%
	Unibet	1.52	65.8%	60.4%	-5.4%
	10Bet	1.50	66.7%	60.4%	-6.3%
	Marathonbet	1.50	66.7%	60.4%	-6.3%
	1xBet	1.50	66.7%	60.4%	-6.3%
Yes BTTS	MarathonbetBest price	1.95	51.3%	47.0%	-4.3%
	Unibet	1.95	51.3%	47.0%	-4.3%
	1xBet	1.95	51.3%	47.0%	-4.3%
No BTTS	1xBetBest price +0.8%	1.74	57.5%	53.0%	-4.5%
	Unibet	1.73	57.8%	53.0%	-4.8%
	Marathonbet	1.71	58.5%	53.0%	-5.5%
Draw or Away Double Chance	Bet365Best price +3.5%	1.53	65.4%	0.0%	-65.4%
	10Bet	1.50	66.7%	0.0%	-66.7%
	Betfair	1.50	66.7%	0.0%	-66.7%
	Unibet	1.48	67.6%	0.0%	-67.6%
	Marathonbet	1.43	69.9%	0.0%	-69.9%
	1xBet	1.43	69.9%	0.0%	-69.9%
Home or Away Double Chance	MarathonbetBest price +3.5%	1.38	72.5%	0.0%	-72.5%
	1xBet	1.38	72.5%	0.0%	-72.5%
	Betfair	1.36	73.5%	0.0%	-73.5%
	10Bet	1.30	76.9%	0.0%	-76.9%
	Bet365	1.30	76.9%	0.0%	-76.9%
	Unibet	1.28	78.1%	0.0%	-78.1%
Home or Draw Double Chance	Bet365Best price +1.8%	1.30	76.9%	0.0%	-76.9%
	Betfair	1.30	76.9%	0.0%	-76.9%
	10Bet	1.28	78.1%	0.0%	-78.1%
	Marathonbet	1.26	79.4%	0.0%	-79.4%
	Unibet	1.26	79.4%	0.0%	-79.4%
	1xBet	1.26	79.4%	0.0%	-79.4%

Santos vs Comerciantes

Under 2.5 Goals

Head-to-Head

Model reasoning

Recorded forecast

Market probabilities

Evidence ledger

Matchup xG signal

Value read

Model card

Odds Comparison