Liga MX
Finished
High risk

Santos Laguna vs Guadalajara Chivas

01Full time
Mon, Aug 17, 01:10 AMEstadio Corona

AI prediction

BTTS Yes

Confidence 51/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.
Model verdict
High risk

BTTS Yes

Santos Laguna (DLLLW) project at 1.4 expected goals versus 1.6 for Guadalajara Chivas (DLWDL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean BTTS Yes at 51/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.

Confidence

51/100

Confidence
51/100

Strongest cover

12

74.3% probability

Risk classification

High

25.7% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

SL win32.8%
Draw25.7%
GC win41.5%

Goals

Over 1.580.3%
Over 2.557%
Under 2.543%

Both teams to score

Yes60.3%
No39.7%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Santos Laguna

4/15 recent form points

DLLLW
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.24
Shots on target
Unavailable

Guadalajara Chivas

5/15 recent form points

DLWDL
xG / match
Unavailable
xGA / match
Unavailable
Goals / match
1.75
Shots on target
Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2025 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 3/10 and Over 2.5 in 3/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version
livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source
Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline
2025 season
Odds timestamp
No odds available
Optional coverage
H2H available · no odds
Confidence
Signal agreement score
Risk
High · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Santos Laguna 0-1 Guadalajara Chivas

2026-08-17T03:10:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Guadalajara Chivas 3-0 Santos Laguna

2026-03-15T00:07:00+01:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Santos Laguna 1-0 Guadalajara Chivas

2025-08-11T04:05:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Guadalajara Chivas 1-0 Santos Laguna

2025-01-12T02:05:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Santos Laguna 0-2 Guadalajara Chivas

2024-11-06T02:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Guadalajara Chivas 1-1 Santos Laguna

2024-01-14T02:05:00+01:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Santos Laguna 2-1 Guadalajara Chivas

2023-08-27T05:05:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Guadalajara Chivas 2-0 Santos Laguna

2023-03-05T04:05:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Guadalajara Chivas 4-0 Santos Laguna

2022-12-20T04:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Santos Laguna 1-1 Guadalajara Chivas

2022-07-17T02:05:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Chivas look like the stronger side in overall results and scoring. They have more wins than Santos Laguna and a better goal record, with 70 goals scored versus Santos’ 42, while also conceding fewer (49 vs 66). That supports the idea that Chivas can create chances and potentially score even away. The match profile also points toward goals at both ends. Santos have only 6 clean sheets in 34 matches, which suggests they often concede, and Chivas have 14 clean sheets in 40 matches, meaning they are capable of keeping games from becoming one-sided. With both teams’ season scoring and concession rates, both teams to score is favored at 60.3%. There’s also a moderate lean toward a higher-scoring game overall, with over 2.5 goals at 57.0%. The recent form is mixed for both teams, which helps explain the relatively high risk level and the confidence score of 51, so the outcome is not strongly one-directional. Given the combination of Chivas’ scoring edge and Santos’ lower clean-sheet frequency, BTTS Yes fits best among the provided probabilities, even if the margin is not large.

Recorded forecast

Final score

0-1

Pre-kickoff call

BTTS Yes · 60.3% → Lost

Ranked probability score

0.2249 (uniform ≈ 0.222)

Recorded Sat, 15 Aug 2026 09:31 UTC, before kickoff, unpriced, by livewin-hybrid-v0.6. Counted in the public track record.

Team hubs: Santos Laguna predictions · Guadalajara Chivas predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.