Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs JEF United Chiba

Sanfrecce Hiroshima at home look stronger across the season, with a 12W 0D 8L record and a positive goal difference from 34 scored and 24 conceded. They also have five clean sheets, and their recent form is very strong with five straight wins. JEF United Chiba away have struggled, with only 3 wins from 20 matches and a heavy 16 losses. Their goal output is lower (21 scored) and they concede more (38), plus they have just one clean sheet on the road, while recent form is weak with multiple losses. The matchup profile supports a home win, reflected in the probabilities showing 70.6% for Sanfrecce Hiroshima versus 11.7% for JEF United Chiba, with draws at 17.7%. There’s also a moderate lean toward goals, with over 2.5 goals at 59.1% and both teams to score at 54.3%, suggesting JEF may still find some scoring chances despite the overall gap. Confidence is fairly solid but not extreme, so the medium risk level fits: Hiroshima’s home strength and form point to them, while JEF’s low win rate and defensive record reduce the upside for an away result.