Rio Verde vs Grêmio Anápolis

Rio Verde at home has a stronger overall record than Grêmio Anápolis, with 5 wins, 7 draws, and only 2 losses across 14 matches. Their goal profile is also slightly better, scoring 15 and conceding 12, and they’ve kept 7 clean sheets, which supports the idea that they can control the game more often at home. Grêmio Anápolis’ away performance looks less stable, with 3 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses, and they’ve scored 13 while conceding 17. Their clean sheets are also low at 2, suggesting they may struggle to prevent Rio Verde from finding chances, even if they can still draw some matches. The market-style probabilities lean toward a home result (53.7% home win versus 19.8% away win), but the draw rate is still substantial (26.5%), which keeps the outcome from looking fully secure. For goals, over 2.5 is only 41.1%, and both teams to score is 45.7%, so a tight or low-to-moderate scoring match is plausible rather than a high-scoring one. With a confidence score of 47 and high risk level, the home win case is reasonable but not strongly protected by the goal expectations or the draw likelihood.