Red Bull Salzburg vs Pafos
1–0Full timeThu, Aug 6, 05:00 PMRed Bull Arena
This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.
Model verdict
High risk
Home Win
Red Bull Salzburg (WLLWL) project at 1.4 expected goals versus 1.2 for Pafos (LW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 42/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2025 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.
Confidence
42/100
Confidence
42/100
Head-to-Head
Recent head-to-head data is unavailable on the current API tier.
Odds Comparison
No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.
Model reasoning
Salzburg at home have struggled in results, with 2 wins and 6 losses from 8 matches, and they’ve conceded more than they’ve scored overall (15 conceded vs 10 scored). Still, they do have some defensive capability at times, with 1 clean sheet in their home sample, and their recent form includes a mix of wins and losses (WLLWL).
Pafos away are less tested in this dataset, with only 2 matches, but their record is closer to balanced (1 win, 1 loss) and they’ve been tight defensively, conceding just 2 goals and keeping 1 clean sheet. Their scoring output is limited as well (2 goals in 2 away matches), which keeps their threat more modest.
The market-style probabilities point to a slight edge for Salzburg to win (42.9%) over a draw (27.6%) and Pafos (29.5%), but the confidence is not strong and the risk is high given Salzburg’s poor home record. Goals look fairly plausible, with over 2.5 goals at 46.5%, and both teams to score at 52.1%, suggesting a match that could be competitive rather than one-sided.
Recorded forecast
Final score
1-0
Pre-kickoff call
Home Win · 40.9% → Won
Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.
