Real Madrid vs Fiorentina

Real Madrid’s early record is strong in this sample, with a 1W 0D 0L start, scoring 4 and conceding 0 across their only match. That clean-sheet profile supports the idea of a home edge, even though the sample size is very small. Fiorentina’s away results are mixed but not weak, with 2W 1D 2L and 6 goals scored versus 4 conceded. Their three clean sheets in five matches suggest they can keep games controlled, which helps explain why a draw or even an away win remains plausible. The goal-related indicators point to a fairly even scoring outlook. Over 2.5 goals is at 43.4% and both teams to score at 48.6%, so a tight game where one side edges the other is more consistent than a high-scoring shootout. With home win probability at 50.8% but only moderate confidence (38) and high risk level, the home win lean looks reasonable, yet it’s not strongly supported. A draw is also a meaningful alternative given Fiorentina’s ability to avoid defeat in one of five matches and their relatively low concession rate.