Real Cartagena vs Ind. Yumbo

Real Cartagena at home has a stronger overall record than Ind. Yumbo away, with 12 wins in 25 matches compared to 5 wins in 16. Their goal profile is also better, scoring 40 and conceding 27, which supports the idea that they can control the game more often than their visitors. Ind. Yumbo’s away numbers are more modest, with 15 goals scored and 14 conceded. Their recent form includes two wins and two draws in the five most recent matches, but the overall win rate remains lower than Real Cartagena’s, which keeps the away upset probability relatively limited. The match outcome probabilities lean toward Real Cartagena, with home win at 50.7% versus 22.3% for Ind. Yumbo and 27.0% for a draw. For goals, the over 2.5 market is below the halfway mark at 43.3%, and both teams to score is also slightly under even at 48.0%, suggesting a game that could be tighter rather than high-scoring. With a 72 confidence score and medium risk, the home win looks like the most likely result, but the draw probability is still meaningful and the goal indicators point to uncertainty around a comfortable margin.