Raków Częstochowa vs Hammarby FF

Raków Częstochowa at home have been relatively solid, with 9 wins from 14 matches and a strong goal record of 22 scored and 9 conceded, including 7 clean sheets. Their recent run is mixed (WWWLL), but the overall home profile still points to them being more likely to control the game. Hammarby FF’s away sample is small (4 matches) and their scoring output is low at 2 goals, even though they’ve conceded only 2 and kept 2 clean sheets. Their recent form is also mixed (DWDL), which limits confidence in a consistent attacking threat. The market-style probabilities reflect this balance: a home win is favored at 51.7% versus 28.4% for a draw and 19.9% for an away win. However, the low away scoring and the relatively tight defensive numbers suggest the match could stay competitive, with both teams to score at 41.1% and over 2.5 goals at 35.6%. With a confidence score of 46 and a high risk level, the home win lean looks plausible but not strongly supported. A draw remains a meaningful alternative given Hammarby’s defensive steadiness and Raków’s recent drop-off in form.