Portland Timbers vs Seattle Sounders

Portland at home have a slightly stronger overall record than Seattle on the road, with 6W 3D 8L at home versus Seattle’s 7W 3D 6L away. Their goal numbers are also close to even, scoring 31 and conceding 32, which suggests they can compete without dominating. Seattle’s away form looks weaker in the most recent stretch, listed as LLLLL, even though their season record is not poor. Defensively, Seattle have been better at keeping clean sheets (5 clean sheets) than Portland (1), but Portland’s overall scoring output (31 goals) indicates they still have chances to score. The market-style probabilities point to a tight match: home win 51.3%, draw 24.2%, away win 24.5%. With over 2.5 goals at 57.0% and both teams to score at 59.1%, the game profile leans toward at least one side finding goals, which supports Portland’s home edge rather than a low-scoring stalemate. Overall, the home win call fits the small advantage in Portland’s home results and the likelihood of goals, but the confidence is only medium because the win probabilities for both sides are close and Seattle’s clean-sheet rate could limit Portland’s scoring.