Pogon Szczecin vs Motor Lublin

Pogon Szczecin at home has a slightly stronger overall record than Motor Lublin away, with 13 wins at home versus Motor’s 10 wins on the road. Their goal difference is also marginally better, with 47 scored and 49 conceded at home compared with Motor’s 46 scored and 53 conceded away. In recent form, both teams look inconsistent, but Pogon’s sequence includes more positive results than Motor’s. Pogon’s recent run is D W L W D, while Motor’s is L L W D L, which suggests Pogon may be more likely to avoid a loss at home even if they do not dominate. The scoring profile leans toward a match with goals. Over 2.5 goals is predicted at 55.0%, and both teams to score is predicted at 57.4%, aligning with the relatively close goal totals and the fact that neither side has an overwhelming clean-sheet advantage. Given the small margins in records and goals, the home win case is plausible but not secure, which matches the modest confidence score of 54 and the high risk level. A draw remains a meaningful alternative at 24.5%, so the safest expectation is competitive play with a slight edge for Pogon.