Plymouth vs Exeter City

Plymouth’s home start looks relatively balanced, with 4 goals scored and 4 conceded across two matches, and they’ve avoided a loss in their most recent result (WL). Exeter City have yet to find the net in their only away match, scoring 0 and conceding 2, which makes Plymouth’s home edge more plausible. The draw is still a meaningful possibility, since Exeter’s record includes a narrow loss and Plymouth’s early home goal profile is even rather than dominant. That keeps the outcome from looking one-sided, even if Plymouth are more likely to win than Exeter. There’s also a slight lean toward a game with goals, with over 2.5 goals flagged at 54.9% and both teams to score at 55.3%. Plymouth’s 4 scored in 2 matches supports that, while Exeter’s 0 scored so far tempers it, suggesting the “both teams” angle may be less secure than the overall goal likelihood. With home win at 62.6% but only moderate confidence (35) and a high risk level, the safer read is that Plymouth are more likely to edge it, while a draw or a low-scoring Exeter upset remains within reach.