AI prediction
Under 2.5 Goals
Persebaya Surabaya (WW) project at 1.4 expected goals versus 1.1 for Port FC (WWW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Under 2.5 Goals at 40/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2026 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped.
Confidence
40/100
Persebaya Surabaya 2-1 Port FC
2026-08-01T14:30:00+02:00
BTTS
Over 2.5
| Market | Bookmaker | Odds | Implied | AI | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Draw 1X2 | BetVictorBest price +4.7% | 3.20 | 31.3% | 29.1% | -2.1% |
| Pinnacle | 3.14 | 31.8% |
Final score
2-1
Pre-kickoff call
Home Win · 42.4% → Won
Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.
Confidence 40/100
Strongest cover
12
70.9% probability
Risk classification
High
29.1% draw weight
Value status
Pass
No qualified price edge
Market sample
6 sources
47 price observations
Full distribution
1X2
Goals
Both teams to score
Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.
Inputs behind the forecast
Persebaya Surabaya
6/6 recent form points
Port FC
9/9 recent form points
The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.
Recent meetings: BTTS in 1/1 and Over 2.5 in 1/1.
Price interpretation
No qualified edge at this snapshot
None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.
Provenance
| 29.1% |
| -2.7% |
| Marathonbet | 3.12 | 32.1% | 29.1% | -3.0% |
| Betfair | 3.10 | 32.3% | 29.1% | -3.2% |
| William Hill | 2.90 | 34.5% | 29.1% | -5.4% |
| Bet365 | 2.88 | 34.7% | 29.1% | -5.6% |
Home 1X2 | Bet365Best price +8.1% | 2.70 | 37.0% | 36.7% | -0.3% |
| Betfair | 2.63 | 38.0% | 36.7% | -1.3% |
| BetVictor | 2.50 | 40.0% | 36.7% | -3.3% |
| William Hill | 2.45 | 40.8% | 36.7% | -4.1% |
| Marathonbet | 2.40 | 41.7% | 36.7% | -5.0% |
| Pinnacle | 2.30 | 43.5% | 36.7% | -6.8% |
Away 1X2 | Bet365Best price +3.2% | 2.70 | 37.0% | 34.2% | -2.8% |
| Marathonbet | 2.66 | 37.6% | 34.2% | -3.4% |
| BetVictor | 2.63 | 38.0% | 34.2% | -3.8% |
| William Hill | 2.62 | 38.2% | 34.2% | -4.0% |
| Pinnacle | 2.59 | 38.6% | 34.2% | -4.4% |
| Betfair | 2.50 | 40.0% | 34.2% | -5.8% |
Over 2.5 Totals | Bet365Best price +3.1% | 2.08 | 48.1% | 45.8% | -2.3% |
| Marathonbet | 2.00 | 50.0% | 45.8% | -4.2% |
| Pinnacle | 2.00 | 50.0% | 45.8% | -4.2% |
| BetVictor | 1.99 | 50.3% | 45.8% | -4.5% |
Under 2.5 Totals | Bet365Best price +1.5% | 1.73 | 57.8% | 54.2% | -3.6% |
| Marathonbet | 1.71 | 58.5% | 54.2% | -4.3% |
| BetVictor | 1.70 | 58.8% | 54.2% | -4.6% |
| Pinnacle | 1.68 | 59.5% | 54.2% | -5.3% |
No BTTS | William HillBest price +0.5% | 1.91 | 52.4% | 48.0% | -4.4% |
| BetVictor | 1.91 | 52.4% | 48.0% | -4.4% |
| Marathonbet | 1.88 | 53.2% | 48.0% | -5.2% |
Yes BTTS | MarathonbetBest price +0.4% | 1.76 | 56.8% | 52.0% | -4.8% |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 57.1% | 52.0% | -5.1% |
| BetVictor | 1.75 | 57.1% | 52.0% | -5.1% |
Home or Draw Double Chance | Bet365Best price +5.6% | 1.50 | 66.7% | 0.0% | -66.7% |
| Betfair | 1.44 | 69.4% | 0.0% | -69.4% |
| William Hill | 1.40 | 71.4% | 0.0% | -71.4% |
| BetVictor | 1.40 | 71.4% | 0.0% | -71.4% |
| Marathonbet | 1.36 | 73.5% | 0.0% | -73.5% |
Draw or Away Double Chance | BetVictorBest price +1.7% | 1.45 | 69.0% | 0.0% | -69.0% |
| William Hill | 1.44 | 69.4% | 0.0% | -69.4% |
| Marathonbet | 1.44 | 69.4% | 0.0% | -69.4% |
| Bet365 | 1.40 | 71.4% | 0.0% | -71.4% |
| Betfair | 1.40 | 71.4% | 0.0% | -71.4% |
Home or Away Double Chance | Bet365Best price +5.6% | 1.40 | 71.4% | 0.0% | -71.4% |
| William Hill | 1.33 | 75.2% | 0.0% | -75.2% |
| BetVictor | 1.33 | 75.2% | 0.0% | -75.2% |
| Betfair | 1.30 | 76.9% | 0.0% | -76.9% |
| Marathonbet | 1.27 | 78.7% | 0.0% | -78.7% |
Ranked probability score
0.2094 (uniform ≈ 0.222)
Recorded Sat, 01 Aug 2026 12:01 UTC, before kickoff, unpriced, by livewin-hybrid-v0.6. Counted in the public track record.
Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.