Pre-match

High risk

Value +29.8%

Persebaya Surabaya vs Arema FC

Tue, Aug 4, 11:30 AM

Model verdict

High risk

BTTS Yes

Persebaya Surabaya (WWW) project at 1.9 expected goals versus 0.9 for Arema FC (DL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean BTTS Yes at 35/100 confidence with high risk. Team strength uses the 2026 historical season baseline, so confidence is deliberately capped. The strongest fair-price edge is Draw or Away at 29.8 percentage points.

Confidence

35/100

Confidence

35/100

Head-to-Head

Arema FC 0-4 Persebaya Surabaya

2026-04-28T10:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Persebaya Surabaya 1-1 Arema FC

2025-11-22T09:30:00+01:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Arema FC 1-1 Persebaya Surabaya

2025-04-28T10:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Persebaya Surabaya 3-2 Arema FC

2024-12-07T09:30:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Arema FC 0-1 Persebaya Surabaya

2024-03-27T14:30:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Persebaya Surabaya 3-1 Arema FC

2023-09-23T10:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Model reasoning

Persebaya Surabaya at home has been very effective defensively in their 2026 sample, conceding just 1 goal in 3 matches and keeping 2 clean sheets. Offensively they’ve scored 4 goals across those games, and their recent form is strong with three straight wins (WWW). Arema FC’s away profile in the 2025 sample looks tougher: they’ve scored 2 goals in 2 matches but conceded 6, with no clean sheets. Their recent form is mixed and negative overall (DL), which suggests they may struggle to control the game even if they can still find chances. The matchup leans toward both teams scoring because the overall probability for BTTS is 58.6%, and the over 2.5 goals probability is 53.4%. With Persebaya’s defense likely limiting Arema, the BTTS case still depends on Arema managing at least one goal despite their higher concession rate. Given the relatively low confidence score (35) and the high risk level, the BTTS Yes angle is plausible but not secure. The draw or away double chance value also points to a competitive game state, but it doesn’t eliminate the possibility of a low-scoring outcome.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Mon, 03 Aug 2026 23:21 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Persebaya Surabaya

9/9 recent form points

WWW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.33
Shots on target: Unavailable

Arema FC

1/6 recent form points

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.00
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 6/10 and Over 2.5 in 5/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

Double Chance · Bet365

Draw or Away

Model edge

+29.8 pp

Model: 59.8%
Market fair: 30.0%
Price: 1.80

The model assigns this outcome a higher chance than the margin-adjusted market view. Its model-fair price is 1.67 versus 1.80 offered. That is a disagreement with the market, not a promise of profit.

Provenance

Model card

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Draw 1X2	BetVictorBest price +7.7%	3.50	28.6%	26.8%	-1.8%
	William Hill	3.30	30.3%	26.8%	-3.5%
	Marathonbet	3.26	30.7%	26.8%	-3.9%
	Betfair	3.20	31.3%	26.8%	-4.4%
	Pinnacle	3.14	31.8%	26.8%	-5.0%
	Bet365	3.10	32.3%	26.8%	-5.5%
Away 1X2	Bet365Best price +14.3%	3.00	33.3%	32.9%	-0.4%
	BetVictor	2.70	37.0%	32.9%	-4.1%
	Marathonbet	2.59	38.6%	32.9%	-5.7%
	Betfair	2.55	39.2%	32.9%	-6.3%
	Pinnacle	2.46	40.7%	32.9%	-7.8%
	William Hill	2.45	40.8%	32.9%	-7.9%
Home 1X2	BetfairBest price +4.8%	2.45	40.8%	40.3%	-0.5%
	William Hill	2.40	41.7%	40.3%	-1.4%
	Marathonbet	2.38	42.0%	40.3%	-1.7%
	Pinnacle	2.35	42.6%	40.3%	-2.3%
	BetVictor	2.30	43.5%	40.3%	-3.2%
	Bet365	2.15	46.5%	40.3%	-6.2%
Under 2.5 Totals	MarathonbetBest price +3.7%	2.06	48.5%	46.6%	-1.9%
	Pinnacle	2.06	48.5%	46.6%	-1.9%
	BetVictor	2.01	49.8%	46.6%	-3.2%
	Bet365	1.95	51.3%	46.6%	-4.7%
	Betfair	1.85	54.1%	46.6%	-7.5%
Over 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +6.6%	1.85	54.1%	53.4%	-0.7%
	Betfair	1.85	54.1%	53.4%	-0.7%
	BetVictor	1.69	59.2%	53.4%	-5.8%
	Marathonbet	1.67	59.9%	53.4%	-6.5%
	Pinnacle	1.62	61.7%	53.4%	-8.3%
No BTTS	William HillBest price +2.9%	2.30	43.5%	41.4%	-2.1%
	Marathonbet	2.24	44.6%	41.4%	-3.2%
	Betfair	2.20	45.5%	41.4%	-4.1%
	BetVictor	2.20	45.5%	41.4%	-4.1%
Yes BTTS	BetfairBest price +3.1%	1.60	62.5%	58.6%	-3.9%
	BetVictor	1.55	64.5%	58.6%	-5.9%
	William Hill	1.53	65.4%	58.6%	-6.8%
	Marathonbet	1.53	65.4%	58.6%	-6.8%
Draw or Away Double Chance	Bet365Best price +16.6%	1.80	55.6%	0.0%	-55.6%
	BetVictor	1.53	65.4%	0.0%	-65.4%
	William Hill	1.50	66.7%	0.0%	-66.7%
	Marathonbet	1.45	69.0%	0.0%	-69.0%
	Betfair	1.44	69.4%	0.0%	-69.4%
Home or Draw Double Chance	William HillBest price +4.7%	1.44	69.4%	0.0%	-69.4%
	Betfair	1.44	69.4%	0.0%	-69.4%
	BetVictor	1.40	71.4%	0.0%	-71.4%
	Marathonbet	1.38	72.5%	0.0%	-72.5%
	Bet365	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
Home or Away Double Chance	BetfairBest price +3.2%	1.30	76.9%	0.0%	-76.9%
	William Hill	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Bet365	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Marathonbet	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	BetVictor	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%

Persebaya Surabaya vs Arema FC

BTTS Yes

Head-to-Head

Model reasoning

Recorded forecast

Market probabilities

Evidence ledger

Matchup xG signal

Value read

Model card

Odds Comparison