PEC Zwolle vs Ajax

Ajax look more likely to create the better chance profile in this matchup, with a stronger overall record away from home and a notably better goal difference. They’ve scored 66 and conceded 42 across 36 matches, while PEC Zwolle have scored 44 and conceded 71 across 34, suggesting Ajax can pressure Zwolle’s defense. The main driver for BTTS is the combination of Ajax’s ability to score and Zwolle’s tendency to concede. Zwolle have 71 goals conceded and only 6 clean sheets, while Ajax have 11 clean sheets but still allow enough goals for both teams to find scoring opportunities. The provided probability for both teams to score is 61.5%, which supports BTTS Yes. There’s also a moderate lean toward a higher-scoring game, with over 2.5 goals at 58.9%. That aligns with the idea that even if Ajax control more of the match, Zwolle are still likely to contribute at least once. With confidence at 52 and risk marked High, the draw and lower-scoring paths remain plausible. PEC Zwolle’s recent form includes multiple losses, but their overall concession rate keeps BTTS in play rather than making it a low-risk call.