Parvoz vs Sardor Tursunzoda
2–4Full timeFri, Jul 31, 12:15 PM
AI prediction
Home Win
This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.
Model verdict
Medium risk
Home Win
Parvoz (DLWLD) project at 1.5 expected goals versus 1.1 for Sardor Tursunzoda (LLLDL). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 66/100 confidence with medium risk.
Confidence
66/100
Confidence
66/100
Head-to-Head
Sardor Tursunzoda 3-0 Parvoz
2026-03-13T11:00:00+01:00
No BTTS
Over 2.5
Odds Comparison
No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.
Model reasoning
Parvoz have a slightly better overall record than Sardor Tursunzoda, with 3 wins versus 1 away win across 12 matches. Their goal difference is also less negative (10 scored, 17 conceded) compared with Sardor’s (13 scored, 21 conceded), which supports a modest edge for the home side.
The recent form leans against Parvoz a bit, since their last five results include only one win (DLWLD). Sardor’s recent run is weaker overall, with just one win in their last five (LLLDL), and that helps explain why the home win is still the most likely single outcome despite Parvoz not being in strong form.
For scoring, both teams to score is favored (52.7%), and over 2.5 goals is slightly below the halfway mark (48.3%). That combination suggests a game where goals are plausible on both sides, but not guaranteed to reach a high total.
Overall, the home win call is reasonable but not firm, aligning with the 49.9% home-win probability and the medium risk level. If you’re looking for a more conservative angle, the draw and a lower-scoring script remain viable given the relatively close win probabilities.
Recorded forecast
Final score
2-4
Pre-kickoff call
Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.