Finished

Low risk

Pakhtakor vs Surkhon

0–0Full time

Fri, Aug 21, 03:00 PMPakhtakor Central Stadium

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 77/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.

Model verdict

Low risk

Home Win

Pakhtakor (WDDWD) project at 1.8 expected goals versus 0.9 for Surkhon (LWLLD). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 77/100 confidence with low risk.

Confidence

77/100

Confidence

77/100

Strongest cover

92.3% probability

Risk classification

Low

14.5% draw weight

Value status

Pass

No qualified price edge

Market sample

6 sources

54 price observations

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

P win77.8%

Draw14.5%

S win7.7%

Goals

Over 1.574.8%

Over 2.561%

Under 2.539%

Both teams to score

Yes45.5%

No54.5%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Pakhtakor

9/15 recent form points

WDDWD

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.67
Shots on target: Unavailable

Surkhon

4/15 recent form points

LWLLD

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 0.89
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 5/10 and Over 2.5 in 4/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: Aug 21, 12:34 PM UTC
Optional coverage: H2H available · odds available
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: Low · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Pakhtakor 0-0 Surkhon

2026-08-21T17:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Surkhon 1-1 Pakhtakor

2026-05-03T16:15:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Pakhtakor 1-0 Surkhon

2025-09-29T16:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Surkhon 2-1 Pakhtakor

2025-05-03T17:15:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Pakhtakor 0-1 Surkhon

2024-08-22T16:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Surkhon 0-3 Pakhtakor

2024-03-04T14:30:00+01:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Surkhon 1-2 Pakhtakor

2023-11-24T14:15:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Pakhtakor 1-0 Surkhon

2023-05-29T17:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Surkhon 1-1 Pakhtakor

2022-10-09T14:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Pakhtakor 2-2 Surkhon

2022-05-12T16:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Away 1X2	MarathonbetBest price +20.7%	13.00	7.7%	7.7%	+0.0%
	William Hill	12.00	8.3%	7.7%	-0.6%
	BetVictor	12.00	8.3%	7.7%	-0.6%
	Betfair	11.00	9.1%	7.7%	-1.4%
	10Bet	8.60	11.6%	7.7%	-3.9%
	Bet365	8.00	12.5%	7.7%	-4.8%
Draw 1X2	Bet365Best price +8.1%	6.25	16.0%	14.5%	-1.5%
	Betfair	6.00	16.7%	14.5%	-2.2%
	BetVictor	6.00	16.7%	14.5%	-2.2%
	Marathonbet	5.90	16.9%	14.5%	-2.4%
	William Hill	5.80	17.2%	14.5%	-2.7%
	10Bet	4.75	21.1%	14.5%	-6.6%
Home 1X2	10BetBest price +5.0%	1.25	80.0%	77.8%	-2.2%
	Bet365	1.22	82.0%	77.8%	-4.2%
	William Hill	1.18	84.7%	77.8%	-6.9%
	BetVictor	1.18	84.7%	77.8%	-6.9%
	Marathonbet	1.16	86.2%	77.8%	-8.4%
	Betfair	1.15	87.0%	77.8%	-9.2%
Under 2.5 Totals	BetfairBest price +6.2%	2.55	39.2%	39.0%	-0.2%
	Bet365	2.50	40.0%	39.0%	-1.0%
	Marathonbet	2.38	42.0%	39.0%	-3.0%
	BetVictor	2.38	42.0%	39.0%	-3.0%
	10Bet	2.20	45.5%	39.0%	-6.5%
Over 2.5 Totals	10BetBest price +2.4%	1.53	65.4%	61.0%	-4.4%
	BetVictor	1.53	65.4%	61.0%	-4.4%
	Bet365	1.50	66.7%	61.0%	-5.7%
	Marathonbet	1.46	68.5%	61.0%	-7.5%
	Betfair	1.45	69.0%	61.0%	-8.0%
Yes BTTS	MarathonbetBest price +1.6%	2.06	48.5%	45.5%	-3.0%
	BetVictor	2.05	48.8%	45.5%	-3.3%
	William Hill	2.00	50.0%	45.5%	-4.5%
	Betfair	2.00	50.0%	45.5%	-4.5%
No BTTS	BetfairBest price +2.8%	1.73	57.8%	54.5%	-3.3%
	William Hill	1.70	58.8%	54.5%	-4.3%
	BetVictor	1.67	59.9%	54.5%	-5.4%
	Marathonbet	1.63	61.3%	54.5%	-6.8%
Draw or Away Double Chance	BetfairBest price +12.6%	4.33	23.1%	0.0%	-23.1%
	William Hill	4.20	23.8%	0.0%	-23.8%
	Marathonbet	4.10	24.4%	0.0%	-24.4%
	Bet365	3.75	26.7%	0.0%	-26.7%
	10Bet	3.45	29.0%	0.0%	-29.0%
	BetVictor	3.25	30.8%	0.0%	-30.8%
Home or Away Double Chance	10BetBest price +3.0%	1.13	88.5%	0.0%	-88.5%
	BetVictor	1.13	88.5%	0.0%	-88.5%
	William Hill	1.11	90.1%	0.0%	-90.1%
	Betfair	1.08	92.6%	0.0%	-92.6%
	Bet365	1.07	93.5%	0.0%	-93.5%
	Marathonbet	1.06	94.3%	0.0%	-94.3%
Home or Draw Double Chance	William HillBest price +1.1%	1.04	96.2%	0.0%	-96.2%
	Bet365	1.04	96.2%	0.0%	-96.2%
	BetVictor	1.04	96.2%	0.0%	-96.2%
	Betfair	1.03	97.1%	0.0%	-97.1%
	10Bet	1.01	99.0%	0.0%	-99.0%
	Marathonbet	1.01	99.0%	0.0%	-99.0%

Model reasoning

Pakhtakor at home has been strong in the league, with 11 wins, 6 draws, and only 1 loss from 18 matches. Their goal record is also solid, scoring 30 and conceding 17, and they’ve kept 6 clean sheets, which supports a home edge. Surkhon’s away record is more difficult, with 5 wins and 9 losses from 18 matches. They’ve scored 16 and conceded 26 on the road, and their 4 clean sheets suggest they’re less consistent defensively when traveling. The matchup profile points toward Pakhtakor being more likely to avoid defeat and take the points, with the home win probability at 77.8% versus 14.5% for a draw and 7.7% for an away win. There’s also a moderate lean toward goals, with over 2.5 goals at 61.0%, while both teams to score is less certain at 45.5%. Overall, the low-risk home win view fits the gap in records and defensive stability, though the draw still remains a realistic alternative given Surkhon’s ability to sometimes keep games from turning fully one-sided.

Recorded forecast

Final score

0-0

Pre-kickoff call

Home Win · 64.5% → Lost

Ranked probability score

0.2182 (uniform ≈ 0.222)

Recorded Fri, 21 Aug 2026 14:01 UTC, before kickoff, unpriced, by livewin-hybrid-v0.6. Counted in the public track record.

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Team hubs: Pakhtakor predictions · Surkhon predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.