Finished

Medium risk

North Texas vs Tacoma Defiance

3–1Full time

Sun, Aug 9, 12:45 AMChoctaw Stadium

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.

Model verdict

Medium risk

BTTS Yes

North Texas (WLWLL) project at 1.7 expected goals versus 1.4 for Tacoma Defiance (LWWWW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean BTTS Yes at 72/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

72/100

Confidence

72/100

Head-to-Head

Tacoma Defiance 2-3 North Texas

2025-05-26T04:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

North Texas 4-1 Tacoma Defiance

2024-10-27T02:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

North Texas 2-1 Tacoma Defiance

2024-04-15T02:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

North Texas 2-2 Tacoma Defiance

2023-08-20T02:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Tacoma Defiance 3-0 North Texas

2023-07-10T05:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

North Texas 1-1 Tacoma Defiance

2022-05-08T23:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Model reasoning

North Texas at home has a fairly even goal profile, scoring 32 and conceding 33 across 19 matches, with only 3 clean sheets. Their recent form is mixed (WLWLL), which suggests they can compete but may not consistently prevent goals. Tacoma Defiance away is also close to balanced in scoring and defense, with 31 goals for and 31 conceded in 21 matches, and 5 clean sheets. Their recent run is stronger (LWWWW), indicating they’ve been more reliable in producing results and likely keeping games open. With both teams’ season totals showing similar scoring and conceding levels, the matchup leans toward both sides finding the net. The probabilities provided support this, with both teams to score at 64.1% and over 2.5 goals at 62.7%, making BTTS Yes a reasonable medium-risk call rather than a lock. The overall match outcome probabilities are also relatively tight (home win 41.6%, draw 24.5%, away win 33.9%), which fits a scenario where neither side dominates completely, further aligning with a BTTS Yes profile.

Recorded forecast

Final score

3-1

Pre-kickoff call

BTTS Yes · 64.1% → Won

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

North Texas

6/15 recent form points

WLWLL

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.68
Shots on target: Unavailable

Tacoma Defiance

12/15 recent form points

LWWWW

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.48
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 6/7 and Over 2.5 in 5/7.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline

Odds Comparison

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Draw 1X2	10BetBest price +1.2%	3.60	27.8%	24.5%	-3.3%
	Bet365	3.60	27.8%	24.5%	-3.3%
	Marathonbet	3.60	27.8%	24.5%	-3.3%
	Betfair	3.60	27.8%	24.5%	-3.3%
	Unibet	3.55	28.2%	24.5%	-3.7%
	William Hill	3.40	29.4%	24.5%	-4.9%
Away 1X2	MarathonbetBest price +3.5%	2.72	36.8%	33.9%	-2.9%
	Bet365	2.70	37.0%	33.9%	-3.1%
	Betfair	2.63	38.0%	33.9%	-4.1%
	William Hill	2.62	38.2%	33.9%	-4.3%
	10Bet	2.60	38.5%	33.9%	-4.6%
	Unibet	2.50	40.0%	33.9%	-6.1%
Home 1X2	UnibetBest price +4.3%	2.28	43.9%	41.6%	-2.3%
	10Bet	2.20	45.5%	41.6%	-3.9%
	Betfair	2.20	45.5%	41.6%	-3.9%
	William Hill	2.15	46.5%	41.6%	-4.9%
	Bet365	2.15	46.5%	41.6%	-4.9%
	Marathonbet	2.14	46.7%	41.6%	-5.1%
Under 2.5 Totals	UnibetBest price +5.3%	2.60	38.5%	37.3%	-1.2%
	Marathonbet	2.43	41.2%	37.3%	-3.9%
	Bet365	2.38	42.0%	37.3%	-4.7%
Over 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +5.0%	1.53	65.4%	62.7%	-2.7%
	Marathonbet	1.44	69.4%	62.7%	-6.7%
	Unibet	1.40	71.4%	62.7%	-8.7%
No BTTS	MarathonbetBest price +2.0%	2.60	38.5%	35.9%	-2.6%
	William Hill	2.50	40.0%	35.9%	-4.1%
Yes BTTS	William HillBest price +1.4%	1.44	69.4%	64.1%	-5.3%
	Marathonbet	1.40	71.4%	64.1%	-7.3%
Draw or Away Double Chance	10BetBest price +3.4%	1.62	61.7%	0.0%	-61.7%
	William Hill	1.62	61.7%	0.0%	-61.7%
	Bet365	1.57	63.7%	0.0%	-63.7%
	Betfair	1.57	63.7%	0.0%	-63.7%
	Marathonbet	1.56	64.1%	0.0%	-64.1%
	Unibet	1.46	68.5%	0.0%	-68.5%
Home or Draw Double Chance	BetfairBest price +4.0%	1.44	69.4%	0.0%	-69.4%
	William Hill	1.40	71.4%	0.0%	-71.4%
	10Bet	1.38	72.5%	0.0%	-72.5%
	Unibet	1.38	72.5%	0.0%	-72.5%
	Bet365	1.36	73.5%	0.0%	-73.5%
	Marathonbet	1.35	74.1%	0.0%	-74.1%
Home or Away Double Chance	William HillBest price +2.6%	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Betfair	1.25	80.0%	0.0%	-80.0%
	Bet365	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	10Bet	1.20	83.3%	0.0%	-83.3%
	Marathonbet	1.20	83.3%	0.0%	-83.3%
	Unibet	1.19	84.0%	0.0%	-84.0%

North Texas vs Tacoma Defiance

BTTS Yes

Head-to-Head

Model reasoning

Recorded forecast

Market probabilities

Evidence ledger

Matchup xG signal

Value read

Model card

Odds Comparison