Friendlies Clubs
Finished
Medium risk

Newcastle vs Bayer Leverkusen result & prediction review

1–2Full time
Sat, Aug 15, 02:00 PM

AI prediction

Away Win

Confidence 67/100

This match has finished. The analysis below is recomputed from current data for reference; the forecast that counts is the one frozen before kickoff, shown under Recorded forecast.
Model verdict
Medium risk

Away Win

Newcastle (LWLLL) project at 0.8 expected goals versus 1.7 for Bayer Leverkusen (WWWLW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Away Win at 67/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

67/100

Confidence
67/100

Strongest cover

X2

85.5% probability

Risk classification

Medium

22.5% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

N win14.5%
Draw22.5%
BL win63%

Goals

Over 1.573.5%
Over 2.547.6%
Under 2.552.4%

Both teams to score

Yes47.7%
No52.3%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Newcastle

3/15 recent form points

LWLLL
xG / match
1.11
xGA / match
1.87
Goals / match
1.43
Shots on target
Unavailable

Bayer Leverkusen

12/15 recent form points

WWWLW
xG / match
2.61
xGA / match
0.86
Goals / match
3.14
Shots on target
Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

N derived xG

0.98

BL derived xG

2.24

Derived by averaging each team's season xG per match with the opponent's xG conceded per match. Combined signal: 3.22. This is a transparent matchup indicator, not a separately trained score forecast.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 2/2 and Over 2.5 in 2/2.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version
livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source
Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline
2026 season
Odds timestamp
No odds available
Optional coverage
H2H available · no odds
Confidence
Signal agreement score
Risk
Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Newcastle 1-2 Bayer Leverkusen

2026-08-15T16:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Bayer Leverkusen 2-2 Newcastle

2025-12-10T21:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Profile angle: the scoring, conceding, form and venue signals produce the Away Win lean for Newcastle vs Bayer Leverkusen. Data angle: the model weights recent form, attack and defensive stability. Market angle: pre-match odds are unavailable, so no model-versus-market edge is claimed. Risk warning: Medium risk. This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guaranteed outcome.

Recorded forecast

Final score

1-2

Pre-kickoff call

Away Win · 57.3% → Won

Ranked probability score

0.1083 (uniform ≈ 0.222)

Recorded Fri, 14 Aug 2026 19:06 UTC, before kickoff, unpriced, by livewin-hybrid-v0.6. Counted in the public track record.

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Team hubs: Newcastle predictions · Bayer Leverkusen predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.