Pre-match

Medium risk

Newcastle vs Aston Villa prediction

Sat, Oct 17, 04:30 PMSt. James' Park

AI prediction

Home Win

Confidence 69/100

Model verdict

Medium risk

Home Win

Newcastle (DWDLW) project at 1.6 expected goals versus 0.9 for Aston Villa (LLDLW). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Home Win at 69/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

69/100

Confidence

69/100

Strongest cover

81.6% probability

Risk classification

Medium

25.2% draw weight

Value status

Unpriced

Pre-match odds unavailable

Market sample

Unavailable

No pre-match quotes

Full distribution

Market probabilities

1X2

N win56.4%

Draw25.2%

AV win18.4%

Goals

Over 1.571.8%

Over 2.545.4%

Under 2.554.6%

Both teams to score

Yes48%

No52%

Complementary outcomes total 100%; values are model estimates, not implied guarantees.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Newcastle

8/15 recent form points

DWDLW

xG / match: 1.11
xGA / match: 1.87
Goals / match: 1.80
Shots on target: Unavailable

Aston Villa

4/15 recent form points

LLDLW

xG / match: 1.00
xGA / match: 2.17
Goals / match: 0.80
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

N derived xG

1.64

AV derived xG

1.43

Derived by averaging each team's season xG per match with the opponent's xG conceded per match. Combined signal: 3.07. This is a transparent matchup indicator, not a separately trained score forecast.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 5/10 and Over 2.5 in 8/10.

Price interpretation

Value read

Odds unavailable for this fixture

The forecast is based on team and matchup evidence only. No model-versus-market edge is claimed until a complete price set is available.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Odds timestamp: No odds available
Optional coverage: H2H available · no odds
Confidence: Signal agreement score
Risk: Medium · uncertainty remains

Confidence reflects separation, form, market agreement and volatility. It does not equal the probability of the displayed pick, and it should not be used as a stake recommendation.

Head-to-Head

Aston Villa 1-3 Newcastle

2026-02-14T18:45:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Newcastle 0-2 Aston Villa

2026-01-25T15:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Aston Villa 0-0 Newcastle

2025-08-16T13:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Aston Villa 4-1 Newcastle

2025-04-19T18:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Newcastle 3-0 Aston Villa

2024-12-26T16:00:00+01:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Aston Villa 1-3 Newcastle

2024-01-30T21:15:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Newcastle 5-1 Aston Villa

2023-08-12T18:30:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Newcastle 3-3 Aston Villa

2023-07-24T01:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Aston Villa 3-0 Newcastle

2023-04-15T13:30:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Newcastle 4-0 Aston Villa

2022-10-29T16:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Over 2.5

Odds Comparison

No pre-match bookmaker prices are available for this fixture. The model does not claim a market edge.

Model reasoning

Profile angle: the scoring, conceding, form and venue signals produce the Home Win lean for Newcastle vs Aston Villa. Data angle: the model weights recent form, attack and defensive stability. Market angle: pre-match odds are unavailable, so no model-versus-market edge is claimed. Risk warning: Medium risk. This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guaranteed outcome.

Recorded forecast

Match is not completed yet. The recorded forecast, final score, and its track-record contribution appear here after settlement.

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Team hubs: Newcastle predictions · Aston Villa predictions

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.