New York City FC vs Toronto FC

NYCFC at home have a stronger overall record than Toronto in this sample, with 7 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses from 17 matches, plus a positive goal difference (30 scored, 23 conceded). Their recent form also looks more favorable, with a sequence of WDLWW, while Toronto’s recent run is LLDDL, suggesting less consistency in results. Toronto’s away record is weaker, with only 3 wins from 17 matches and more losses than wins (7D 7L alongside 3W). Defensively, Toronto have conceded 31 goals versus NYCFC’s 23, which aligns with the matchup leaning toward NYCFC rather than a close stalemate. The goal outlook points to a moderate chance of a higher-scoring game. Over 2.5 goals is favored at 60.4%, and both teams to score is also slightly more likely than not at 58.9%, which fits the idea of NYCFC edging the match without needing a guaranteed clean sheet. Overall, the home win profile is supported by the probabilities (62.2% home win) and the underlying home/away records, but the draw rate is still meaningful (20.7%), keeping the risk at a medium level rather than low.