Pre-match

Medium risk

Nesebar vs Dobrudzha

Mon, Aug 10, 03:00 PMGradski stadion

Model verdict

Medium risk

Away Win

Nesebar (LL) project at 1.3 expected goals versus 1.6 for Dobrudzha (WD). The blended Poisson, form, rating and market signals lean Away Win at 61/100 confidence with medium risk.

Confidence

61/100

Confidence

61/100

Head-to-Head

Nesebar 1-1 Dobrudzha

2025-02-22T13:30:00+01:00

BTTS

Under 2.5

Dobrudzha 6-1 Nesebar

2024-08-13T17:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Nesebar 1-3 Dobrudzha

2024-07-06T17:00:00+02:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Nesebar 3-1 Dobrudzha

2018-12-08T13:00:00+01:00

BTTS

Over 2.5

Dobrudzha 1-0 Nesebar

2018-08-04T17:00:00+02:00

No BTTS

Under 2.5

Model reasoning

Dobrudzha look more likely to avoid defeat and take the points. In their two matches, they have a 1W 1D 0L record, while Nesebar are winless with 0W 0D 2L. The goal numbers also lean toward the away side. Dobrudzha have scored 5 and conceded 1, including 1 clean sheet, whereas Nesebar have scored 2 and conceded 8 with no clean sheets. That defensive gap supports the away win probability of 53.1%. There is still some uncertainty because the match is close on the draw likelihood, with draws at 24.4%. Also, the over 2.5 goals rate is only 48.1%, suggesting the game could be relatively tight even if Dobrudzha are favored. Overall, the away win is the most probable outcome (53.1%), with medium risk given the moderate goal expectation and the non-trivial chance of a draw. Both teams to score is slightly favored at 50.8%, so a clean-sheet outcome for Dobrudzha is possible but not guaranteed.

Recorded forecast

This forecast was recorded on Mon, 10 Aug 2026 04:08 UTC and is frozen: it will be graded against the final score on the public track record after full time.

Predictions are probabilistic and for informational/analytical purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed.

Inputs behind the forecast

Evidence ledger

Nesebar

0/6 recent form points

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 1.00
Shots on target: Unavailable

Dobrudzha

4/6 recent form points

xG / match: Unavailable
xGA / match: Unavailable
Goals / match: 2.50
Shots on target: Unavailable

Matchup xG signal

The live data feed does not provide xG in this statistics response. This forecast uses the 2026 historical season baseline, falls back to observed scoring and conceding rates, and lowers its data-quality assessment.

Recent meetings: BTTS in 4/5 and Over 2.5 in 3/5.

Price interpretation

Value read

No qualified edge at this snapshot

None of the tracked prices shows enough separation from the model probability to earn a value flag. A pass is the strongest analytical reading until prices or inputs move.

Provenance

Model card

Version: livewin-hybrid-v0.6
Data source: Licensed live data feed
Statistics baseline

Market	Bookmaker	Odds	Implied	AI	Gap
Home 1X2	BetVictorBest price +12.2%	4.40	22.7%	22.5%	-0.2%
	Betfair	4.20	23.8%	22.5%	-1.3%
	Bet365	4.00	25.0%	22.5%	-2.5%
	1xBet	3.95	25.3%	22.5%	-2.8%
	Marathonbet	3.88	25.8%	22.5%	-3.3%
	Unibet	3.10	32.3%	22.5%	-9.8%
Draw 1X2	Bet365Best price +3.8%	3.70	27.0%	24.4%	-2.6%
	Marathonbet	3.62	27.6%	24.4%	-3.2%
	1xBet	3.62	27.6%	24.4%	-3.2%
	Betfair	3.50	28.6%	24.4%	-4.2%
	BetVictor	3.50	28.6%	24.4%	-4.2%
	Unibet	3.45	29.0%	24.4%	-4.6%
Away 1X2	UnibetBest price +8.8%	1.90	52.6%	53.1%	+0.5%
	1xBet	1.75	57.1%	53.1%	-4.0%
	Marathonbet	1.73	57.8%	53.1%	-4.7%
	Betfair	1.73	57.8%	53.1%	-4.7%
	BetVictor	1.70	58.8%	53.1%	-5.7%
	Bet365	1.67	59.9%	53.1%	-6.8%
Over 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +3.4%	2.00	50.0%	48.1%	-1.9%
	Betfair	1.95	51.3%	48.1%	-3.2%
	Marathonbet	1.93	51.8%	48.1%	-3.7%
	1xBet	1.93	51.8%	48.1%	-3.7%
	BetVictor	1.92	52.1%	48.1%	-4.0%
	Unibet	1.87	53.5%	48.1%	-5.4%
Under 2.5 Totals	Bet365Best price +2.3%	1.80	55.6%	51.9%	-3.7%
	Marathonbet	1.76	56.8%	51.9%	-4.9%
	BetVictor	1.76	56.8%	51.9%	-4.9%
	1xBet	1.76	56.8%	51.9%	-4.9%
	Betfair	1.75	57.1%	51.9%	-5.2%
	Unibet	1.73	57.8%	51.9%	-5.9%
No BTTS	UnibetBest price +1.4%	1.87	53.5%	49.2%	-4.3%
	Betfair	1.85	54.1%	49.2%	-4.9%
	1xBet	1.85	54.1%	49.2%	-4.9%
	BetVictor	1.83	54.6%	49.2%	-5.4%
	Marathonbet	1.82	54.9%	49.2%	-5.7%
Yes BTTS	BetfairBest price +1.9%	1.85	54.1%	50.8%	-3.3%
	BetVictor	1.85	54.1%	50.8%	-3.3%
	Marathonbet	1.82	54.9%	50.8%	-4.1%
	1xBet	1.82	54.9%	50.8%	-4.1%
	Unibet	1.74	57.5%	50.8%	-6.7%
Home or Draw Double Chance	Bet365Best price +6.3%	2.00	50.0%	0.0%	-50.0%
	Betfair	2.00	50.0%	0.0%	-50.0%
	Marathonbet	1.88	53.2%	0.0%	-53.2%
	1xBet	1.88	53.2%	0.0%	-53.2%
	Unibet	1.65	60.6%	0.0%	-60.6%
Home or Away Double Chance	BetfairBest price +5.6%	1.29	77.5%	0.0%	-77.5%
	Bet365	1.22	82.0%	0.0%	-82.0%
	Marathonbet	1.20	83.3%	0.0%	-83.3%
	Unibet	1.20	83.3%	0.0%	-83.3%
	1xBet	1.20	83.3%	0.0%	-83.3%
Draw or Away Double Chance	UnibetBest price +4.2%	1.24	80.6%	0.0%	-80.6%
	Betfair	1.20	83.3%	0.0%	-83.3%
	Bet365	1.17	85.5%	0.0%	-85.5%
	Marathonbet	1.17	85.5%	0.0%	-85.5%
	1xBet	1.17	85.5%	0.0%	-85.5%

Nesebar vs Dobrudzha

Away Win

Head-to-Head

Model reasoning

Recorded forecast

Market probabilities

Evidence ledger

Matchup xG signal

Value read

Model card

Odds Comparison